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Tropical Storm Elsa Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-07-07 04:50:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 07 Jul 2021 02:50:40 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 27
2021-07-06 23:21:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 062120 CCA TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 CORRECTED ADVISORY INITIAL INTENSITY TO 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF GEORGIA FROM THE MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER TO ALTAMAHA SOUND. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EGMONT KEY TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER...FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO SOUTH OF EGMONT KEY * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER * COAST OF GEORGIA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARYS RIVER TO ALTAMAHA SOUND A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA...TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 83.0W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 83.0W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 83.0W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.5N 83.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.0N 82.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.3N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.8N 78.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 37.4N 75.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 40.5N 71.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 48.5N 58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 83.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART
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Tropical Storm Elsa Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-07-06 22:40:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 06 Jul 2021 20:40:59 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-06 22:40:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Jul 2021 20:40:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Jul 2021 20:40:39 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 27
2021-07-06 22:39:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 062039 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 The Hurricane Hunters completed their mission into Elsa a little while ago, and observations from the aircraft indicate that the storm's maximum winds are near 60 kt. Elsa is a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low level center situated on the southwest edge of the main area of deep convection. Much of the western half of the circulation continues to lack significant shower or thunderstorm activity. Moderate westerly vertical shear, along with relatively dry mid-level air, should continue to affect the cyclone until landfall within the next day or so. However this environment should not be hostile enough to prevent some slight strengthening, and Elsa is predicted to become a hurricane overnight. Elsa is moving northward, or 350/9 kt. A continued northward track is likely for the next 24 hours or so as the tropical cyclone moves between the western periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge and a broad low pressure area over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A turn toward the north-northeast along the northwestern side of the ridge is expected by late tomorrow, followed by an acceleration toward the northeast over the next couple of days ahead of a trough over the eastern United States and eastern Canada. The official track forecast is similar to the previous ones and near or slightly to the right of the model consensus tracks. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba tonight resulting in significant flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves across the western and northern Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Mid- to late-week, heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for that area. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of the Florida Keys and will spread northward along the west coast of the state within the warning area through Wednesday morning. 4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next couple of days, tropical storm conditions are expected in a portion of southeastern Georgia and are possible elsewhere along much of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 25.8N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 27.5N 83.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 30.0N 82.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/0600Z 32.3N 81.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/1800Z 34.8N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/0600Z 37.4N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 09/1800Z 40.5N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 10/1800Z 48.5N 58.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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