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Summary for Tropical Storm Enrique (EP5/EP052021)
2021-06-25 19:36:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE INTENSIFIES A LITTLE MORE... As of 1:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 the center of Enrique was located near 15.7, -102.8 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory Number 2A
2021-06-25 19:36:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 251736 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 100 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 ...ENRIQUE INTENSIFIES A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 102.8W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... *Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 102.8 West. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). The storm is expected to gradually slowdown with a turn toward the northwest forecast to occur by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast and Enrique could become a hurricane on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Saturday. RAINFALL: The outer bands of Enrique are likely to cause locally heavy rains over portions of southwestern Mexico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-06-25 16:57:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 180 WTPZ45 KNHC 251457 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Convective coverage with Enrique has increased further this morning with a number of prominent banding features along the storm's south and eastern sides. This improvement in structure is also confirmed by a 1045 UTC 37 GHz GMI overpass, which suggested a formative inner core as the convective banding increased. The latest round of subjective Dvorak satellite estimates were both T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, while the UW-CIMSS advanced Dvorak technique (ADT) estimate was up to T3.0/45 kt. Blending these estimates but learning towards the higher ADT value yields a current intensity of 40 kt for this advisory. The current motion of Enrique continues to the west-northwest at 290/8 kt, while the storm remains steered by a large mid-level ridge anchored over Mexico. However, this ridge will shift westward and weaken to the north of Enrique as a mid- to upper-level trough digs southward into the southwestern US. This pattern will likely slow down the steering currents over Enrique and allow for a gradual turn to the northwest late this weekend and early next week. Later in the forecast, Enrique's track is expected to bend back to the west-northwest as it becomes an increasingly shallow cyclone and the low- to mid-level ridging builds back in over Mexico. The latest NHC track forecast is in decent agreement with the track consensus, but some spread remains, with the GFS and HMON still on the right side of the guidance envelope. The current light northeasterly shear impacting Enrique is forecast to decrease even further over the next 24 to 48 hours while the cyclone traverses warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures and remains embedded in a moist mid-level environment. These conditions favor at least steady intensification, and Enrique is now forecast to become a hurricane in 24 hours and reach a peak intensity of 85 kt in 48 hours. Thereafter, easterly vertical wind shear could increase somewhat over the system, and its slow forward motion could lead to some upwelling of cooler waters underneath the cyclone. Thus, weakening is forecast to begin after 48 hours. By the end of the forecast period, sea-surface temperatures drop sharply along Enrique's expected track and more rapid weakening is likely. The latest NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one during the first 48 hours, but is still a little below the reliable HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA). Thereafter, the rate of weakening has been increased a bit as the thermodynamic environment becomes increasingly unfavorable. While the center of Enrique is still forecast to remain offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico, the large wind radii predicted on the eastern side of the storm necessitates the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch from Punta San Telmo northwestward to Cabo Corrientes. In addition, outer rainbands are expected to cause locally heavy rains across portions of southwestern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 15.6N 102.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 15.9N 103.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 16.4N 104.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 16.9N 105.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 17.6N 106.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 18.5N 106.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 19.2N 107.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 20.1N 108.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 20.9N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Enrique Graphics
2021-06-25 16:50:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 25 Jun 2021 14:50:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 25 Jun 2021 15:22:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-06-25 16:48:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 25 2021 885 FOPZ15 KNHC 251448 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 1500 UTC FRI JUN 25 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 14(21) 5(26) 1(27) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13) 15N 105W 34 7 31(38) 12(50) 3(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) 15N 105W 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 7(22) 1(23) X(23) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 1 10(11) 16(27) 12(39) 7(46) X(46) 1(47) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 6 8(14) 6(20) 3(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) ZIHUATANEJO 34 4 6(10) 4(14) 2(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 100W 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ACAPULCO 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 10(24) 4(28) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 3(18) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI
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