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Tropical Storm Claudette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-06-19 10:58:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 190858 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0900 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) X(16) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COLUMBUS GA 34 1 3( 4) 11(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 4 11(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) WHITING FLD FL 34 12 5(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) PENSACOLA FL 34 14 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GFMX 290N 870W 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 72 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) STENNIS MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MORGAN CITY LA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Claudette (AT3/AL032021)
2021-06-19 10:58:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORMS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS FLOODING REMAINS THE PRIMARY HAZARD... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 the center of Claudette was located near 29.6, -90.7 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Claudette Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-06-19 10:58:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 190858 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0900 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA. * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 90.7W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 90.7W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 91.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.9N 89.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 32.2N 87.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 33.3N 84.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 34.2N 80.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.8N 76.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 38.5N 71.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 90SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 47.0N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 90.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 19/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Claudette Public Advisory Number 7
2021-06-19 10:58:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 190858 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Claudette Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORMS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS FLOODING REMAINS THE PRIMARY HAZARD... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 90.7W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM WSW OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida. * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located inland near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 90.7 West. Claudette is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today, with a turn toward the east-northeast expected by tonight or Sunday. On the forecast track, the system should move farther inland over Louisiana during the next several hours, then move across portions of the Gulf coast and southeastern states through the weekend, and over the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Claudette is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight and become a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday. The system is forecast to re-develop over the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts are possible across coastal Mississippi and Alabama, and the far western Florida Panhandle through the afternoon. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely across the remainder of the Central Gulf Coast. As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy rain will expand across central Alabama, central and northern Georgia, into the Piedmont of the Carolinas, resulting in rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding impacts are possible. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...2-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-2 ft Vermilion Bay...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue along the coast in the warning area today. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, and southwest Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-06-19 10:52:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 190852 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Dolores appears to be in another bursting pattern coincident with the diurnal max this morning, as deep convection and cold cloud tops have increased in coverage and intensity near the estimated low-level center. A distinct curved band has also formed along the storm's southern semicircle. The latest Dvorak subjective intensity estimates were both T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, though the most recent CIMSS-ADT intensity estimate was only T3.0/45 kt. Unfortunately there has not been no recent microwave or scatterometer data available to better assess the inner core structure of the cyclone. Blending the subjective and objective intensity estimates, the maximum sustained winds was raised to 50 kt for this advisory, though this value may be conservative. Dolores appears to be making a slow right turn as the storm gradually accelerates while it rounds the western side of a mid-level ridge, currently moving at 330/9 kt. A gradual acceleration toward the north-northwest is anticipated until landfall with this motion continuing until the storm dissipates over the high terrain of western Mexico. The latest track forecast is a bit to the east of the previous forecast cycle but remains in close agreement with the multi-model consensus. On this track, Dolores is expected to reach the Mexican coastline in the next 12 h and push far inland thereafter. Given the eastward adjustment in the forecast track, the government of Mexico has extended the hurricane watch further to the southeast for this advisory. Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for additional intensification right up until landfall along the Mexican coast, close to Punta San Telmo, in about 12 h. The current forecast intensity for 60 kt in 12 hours is a bit higher than the guidance consensus, as few models already have the storm inland at that time. Rapid weakening is forecast as Dolores moves inland over western Mexico thereafter and the storm will likely dissipate by 36 h, if not sooner. Key Messages: 1. Dolores is expected to continue strengthening today up until landfall, and it could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico by this afternoon. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for portions of the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 17.0N 103.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 18.6N 103.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 20/0600Z 21.4N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake
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