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Tropical Storm Nicholas Public Advisory Number 9

2021-09-14 10:55:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 140855 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 ...NICHOLAS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 95.6W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF HOUSTON TEXAS ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF FREEPORT TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Sabine Pass to Cameron, Louisiana. The Hurricane Warning is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning from Matagorda to Freeport. The Storm Surge Warning from Port O'Connor to Sargent including Matagorda Bay has been discontinued. The Hurricane Warning is discontinued from south of Matagorda to Port O'Connor. The Hurricane Watch is discontinued from Freeport to San Luis Pass. The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued from Port O'Connor to North of Port Aransas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sargent to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Matagorda to Cameron A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the progress of Nicholas. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 95.6 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). The storm should move more slowly to the northeast later today and then eastward by Wednesday over Louisiana. Little motion is anticipated on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Nicholas should weaken further today and is forecast to become a tropical depression by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. A NOAA station at Galveston Bay, Texas recently reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) gusting to 68 mph (109 km/h). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall of 5 to 10 inches from the upper Texas coastal area into central to southern Louisiana, far southern Mississippi and far southern Alabama, with isolated storm totals of 20 inches across central to southern Louisiana. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urbanized metropolitan areas, are possible across these regions. Widespread minor to isolated major river flooding is expected across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and Mississippi. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Hurricane Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sargent, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...3-5 ft High Island, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA...2-4 ft Port Aransas, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...1-3 ft Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the warning area across Texas coasts through this morning and start along the Louisiana coast by afternoon. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today and tonight along the upper Texas Coast and southern Louisiana. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Nicholas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2021-09-14 10:55:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 140855 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 0900 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 34 2 X( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LAFAYETTE LA 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) NEW IBERIA LA 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 930W 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SHREVEPORT LA 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 5 7(12) 3(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) LAKE CHARLES 34 11 14(25) 4(29) X(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) LAKE CHARLES 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 15 12(27) 2(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) JASPER TX 34 18 9(27) 1(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) JASPER TX 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 61 7(68) 1(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) KOUNTZE TX 50 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 58 10(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GALVESTON TX 50 55 X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) HOUSTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOUSTON TX 50 44 X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) FREEPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FREEPORT TX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FREEPORT TX 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 950W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 11 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MATAGORDA TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT O CONNOR 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Advisory Number 9

2021-09-14 10:54:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 140854 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 0900 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SABINE PASS TO CAMERON...LOUISIANA. THE HURRICANE WARNING IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM MATAGORDA TO FREEPORT. THE STORM SURGE WARNING FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT INCLUDING MATAGORDA BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FROM SOUTH OF MATAGORDA TO PORT O'CONNOR. THE HURRICANE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FROM FREEPORT TO SAN LUIS PASS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SARGENT TO SABINE PASS INCLUDING GALVESTON BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MATAGORDA TO CAMERON A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NICHOLAS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 95.6W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 95.6W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 95.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 29.9N 95.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 30.3N 94.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 30.4N 93.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 30.4N 92.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.5N 92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 95.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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