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Tropical Storm Nicholas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2021-09-13 06:30:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0430 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 130430 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 0430 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 AT 0430Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 930W 34 5 7(12) 3(15) 2(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) FORT POLK LA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 4(15) 2(17) X(17) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) CAMERON LA 34 2 8(10) 6(16) 2(18) 4(22) 1(23) X(23) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JASPER TX 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 6(18) 4(22) 2(24) X(24) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) 6(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 4( 4) 14(18) 5(23) 2(25) 2(27) X(27) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 6 22(28) 14(42) 2(44) 1(45) 1(46) X(46) GALVESTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 1 10(11) 35(46) 4(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) FREEPORT TX 34 1 34(35) 18(53) 1(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) FREEPORT TX 50 X 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 950W 34 25 25(50) 3(53) X(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 8( 9) 17(26) 4(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 13 46(59) 11(70) 1(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 11(11) 13(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) MATAGORDA TX 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 17 52(69) 7(76) X(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 18(18) 8(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) PORT O CONNOR 64 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKPORT TX 34 3 42(45) 8(53) X(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) ROCKPORT TX 50 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 2 23(25) 8(33) 1(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 69 17(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) GFMX 270N 960W 50 3 22(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MCALLEN TX 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HARLINGEN TX 34 10 4(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 22 4(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) GFMX 250N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 250N 960W 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Tropical Storm Nicholas (AT4/AL142021)

2021-09-13 06:30:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...NICHOLAS RE-FORMS TO THE NORTH AND STRENGTHENS... As of 11:30 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 the center of Nicholas was located near 24.8, -96.3 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Nicholas Public Advisory Number 4

2021-09-13 06:30:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 505 WTNT34 KNHC 130430 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicholas Special Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1130 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 ...NICHOLAS RE-FORMS TO THE NORTH AND STRENGTHENS... SUMMARY OF 1130 PM CDT...0430 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 96.3W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas * Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas to Freeport Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas * Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas * San Luis Pass Texas to Rutherford Beach Louisiana, including Galveston Bay * Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of High Island Texas to Sabine Pass A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1130 PM CDT (0430 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 96.3 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). The storm should turn northward on Monday and north-northeastward on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas on Monday, and move onshore along the coast of south or central Texas coast Monday afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast until Nicholas reaches the northwest Gulf coast late on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas tonight through the middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding. Over the northeastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected tonight into Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay... 3-5 ft San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas Monday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread northward within the warning area through Monday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night or early Tuesday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible Monday into Monday night across the middle and lower Texas coast. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will begin affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast tonight and continue into Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Advisory Number 4

2021-09-13 06:29:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0430 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 130429 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 0430 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS * ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...AND MATAGORDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TO FREEPORT TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS * BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA...INCLUDING GALVESTON BAY * BAFFIN BAY AND CORPUS CHRISTI BAY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO SABINE PASS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 96.3W AT 13/0430Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 96.3W AT 13/0430Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 96.0W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 26.0N 96.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 28.0N 96.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.4N 96.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.2N 95.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.8N 94.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.3N 94.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 31.7N 92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 96.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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