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Summary for Tropical Storm Nicholas (AT4/AL142021)
2021-09-13 07:45:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT NICHOLAS IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... As of 1:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 the center of Nicholas was located near 25.1, -96.5 with movement NNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Public Advisory Number 4A
2021-09-13 07:45:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 130545 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 100 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT NICHOLAS IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 96.5W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas * Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas to Freeport Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas * Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas * San Luis Pass Texas to Rutherford Beach Louisiana, including Galveston Bay * Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of High Island Texas to Sabine Pass A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 96.5 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). The storm should turn northward later today and north-northeastward on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and south Texas this morning, and move onshore along the coast of south or central Texas Monday afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast until Nicholas reaches the northwest Gulf coast later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure has fallen to 1001 mb (29.56 inches) based on reconnaissance data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through the middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding. Over the northeastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected through today. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay... 3-5 ft San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread northward within the warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by tonight or early Tuesday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into tonight across the middle and lower Texas coast. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Graphics
2021-09-13 07:45:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 13 Sep 2021 05:45:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 13 Sep 2021 04:31:31 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-09-13 06:46:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 13 Sep 2021 04:46:21 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-09-13 06:31:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 130431 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Nicholas Special Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1130 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 The center of Nicholas has re-formed about 150 n mi to the north-northwest of the previous feature we were tracking, as confirmed by aircraft reconnaissance and Brownsville radar, and this large change necessitates a special advisory. The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, a blend of the reduced 56-kt flight level winds and 45-50 kt SFMR values recently found by the plane. Because of the re-formation, the track forecast has been accelerated to indicate a landfall about 12 hours sooner than the last advisory. The intensity forecast is about 5 kt stronger in the short term, but actually ends up near the same intensity at landfall as the last advisory because of less time over water. The track forecast is blended with the previous one after landfall, and the intensity forecast is lower after landfall because it is farther inland. No changes to the watches or warnings are required at this time. Key Messages: 1. Periods of heavy rainfall are expected to impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Isolated minor to moderate river flooding is also expected. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a strong tropical storm on Monday, and could be near hurricane intensity if it moves to the right of the forecast track and remains over water longer. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning Monday, with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to Freeport late Monday and Monday night. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas beginning Monday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0430Z 24.8N 96.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 26.0N 96.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 28.0N 96.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 29.4N 96.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 15/0000Z 30.2N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 15/1200Z 30.8N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/0000Z 31.3N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/0000Z 31.7N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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