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Tropical Storm Vicky Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-09-15 22:33:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 152033 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICKY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-09-15 22:33:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 152033 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 32.1W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 32.1W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 31.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.6N 33.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.1N 35.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.4N 37.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 22.4N 38.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.2N 40.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 32.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm Vicky Graphics
2020-09-15 16:43:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 14:43:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 14:43:19 GMT
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Tropical Storm Teddy Graphics
2020-09-15 16:39:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 14:39:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 14:39:57 GMT
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-09-15 16:39:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 151439 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 Although the stiff westerly shear (magnitude of greater than 50 kt) continues to affect Vicky's vertical structure this morning, a 1107 UTC METOP-B scatterometer pass indicated that the cyclone is maintaining 45-kt sustained winds well to the east-northeast of the center. Therefore, once again for this advisory, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. The ECMWF/FV3 SHIPS intensity models and the deterministic guidance, including the simulated infrared imagery product, agree with Vicky weakening to a remnant low in 36 hours and dissipating by 72 hours due to the persistent strong shear. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/8 kt. Vicky is forecast to continue on this general motion through Wednesday night within the low-level tradewind flow. No significant changes were made to the previous advisory, and the new NHC forecast is based on the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 20.6N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 21.3N 32.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 21.9N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 22.3N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z 22.2N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0000Z 22.2N 39.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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