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Tropical Storm Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-09-15 22:38:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 152038 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-15 22:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...STEADY TEDDY EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 15 the center of Teddy was located near 14.6, -47.9 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Teddy Public Advisory Number 13
2020-09-15 22:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 152038 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 ...STEADY TEDDY EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 47.9W ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 47.9 West. Teddy is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A steady northwest motion at 10 to 15 mph is expected through the end of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Teddy could become a hurricane tonight. Teddy is forecast to be near major hurricane strength within a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-09-15 22:37:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 152037 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 47.9W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......140NE 80SE 40SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 47.9W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 47.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 50SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.2N 51.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 25SE 15SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.7N 53.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 54.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.5N 55.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 25.4N 58.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 28.5N 61.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 47.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-09-15 22:36:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 152036 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 122.1W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 122.1W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 121.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.6N 123.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.5N 124.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.2N 126.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 23.5N 127.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.3N 128.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 122.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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