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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-09-16 10:23:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160823 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Karina is weakening in a hurry. Deep convection near the center has largely dissipated, and the only area of lingering convection is in the northeastern quadrant. An ASCAT overpass from around 0500 UTC showed maximum winds in the 30-35 kt range, and based on that data the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt. The tropical storm is already in unfavorable conditions of cool 25 C waters and a dry and stable airmass. Since Karina will be moving over even cooler waters and into an environment of stronger southerly wind shear, continued weakening is expected. Karina is now forecast to become a remnant low by 24 hours and dissipate within a few days. Karina is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt as it remains steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. A continued west-northwest to northwest motion should continue for about another day, but after Karina becomes a shallow remnant low it is expected to turn westward within the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 21.7N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 22.4N 124.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 23.1N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1800Z 23.5N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 23.4N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1800Z 23.1N 129.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Karina (EP1/EP162020)
2020-09-16 10:22:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA WEAKENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 the center of Karina was located near 21.7, -123.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 14
2020-09-16 10:22:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 160822 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...KARINA WEAKENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 123.7W ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 123.7 West. Karina is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A slower westward motion is expected on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Karina is expected to become a remnant low by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-09-16 10:22:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 160822 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-09-16 10:22:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 160822 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 123.7W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 123.7W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 123.3W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.4N 124.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.1N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 23.5N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.4N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.1N 129.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 123.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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