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Tropical Storm Olaf Graphics
2021-09-09 10:55:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 08:55:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 08:55:28 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Olaf (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-09 10:54:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OLAF STILL STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 3:00 AM MDT Thu Sep 9 the center of Olaf was located near 20.5, -108.0 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 7
2021-09-09 10:54:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 192 WTPZ35 KNHC 090853 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...OLAF STILL STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 108.0W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for Baja California Sur from Los Barriles to Santa Fe. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro and north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 108.0 West. Olaf is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a slower westward motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will approach southern Baja California Sur today, move near or over the southern part of the peninsula tonight and on Friday, and then move westward away from land Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Olaf is expected to become a hurricane later today. Weakening is forecast to start on Friday when Olaf begins to move away from Baja California Sur. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area tonight. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this afternoon or this evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern portions of the tropical storm warning area tonight and will spread northward within the warning area on Friday. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of far southern Baja California Sur today through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warnings areas in regions of onshore wind. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are beginning to reach portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Olaf Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-09-09 10:54:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 181 FOPZ15 KNHC 090853 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 8 84(92) 3(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 46(46) 13(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X 16(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) SAN JOSE CABO 34 8 81(89) 4(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 34(34) 9(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LA PAZ 34 1 13(14) 26(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) LA PAZ 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 12 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MAZATLAN 34 4 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 4 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-09-09 10:53:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 966 WTPZ25 KNHC 090853 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO AND NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO SAN EVARISTO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO SAN EVARISTO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLAF. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.0W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.0W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.4N 108.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.6N 110.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.5N 111.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.7N 113.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.1N 115.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 22.1N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 21.3N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 108.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 09/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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