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Tropical Storm Mindy Public Advisory Number 1
2021-09-08 22:56:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 082056 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mindy Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 86.3W ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of the Florida Panhandle from Mexico Beach to Steinhatchee River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mexico Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mindy was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 86.3 West. Mindy is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and northeast to east-northeastward motion is expected to continue over the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is expected to cross the coastline of the Florida Panhandle later tonight, and then move offshore of the southeastern United States into the western Atlantic Ocean by tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Mindy makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches across the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area later this evening and tonight. TORNADOES: A few isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of the Florida Panhandle this evening into tomorrow morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Storm Mindy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-09-08 22:54:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 082054 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM MINDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 1 17(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) WAYCROSS GA 34 1 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 34 1 21(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 21(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) GAINESVILLE FL 34 3 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 13 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ST MARKS FL 34 18 4(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) APALACHICOLA 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 850W 34 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) PANAMA CITY FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Tropical Storm Mindy Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-09-08 22:53:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 082053 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM MEXICO BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 86.3W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 86.3W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 86.8W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.3N 84.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 31.3N 80.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 32.3N 75.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 32.9N 72.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 33.4N 69.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 33.3N 68.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 86.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Tropical Storm Olaf Graphics
2021-09-08 22:49:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 20:49:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 21:34:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-09-08 22:47:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 082047 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 Olaf's appearance has remained steady today and the storm is characterized by a large curved band that encompasses much of the circulation. There is good outflow in all quadrants, indicative of a low-shear environment. An earlier ASCAT pass sampled peak winds of 37 kt, and this data along with a blend of the latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB indicate that the initial intensity is around 40 kt. The storm is forecast to remain over warm waters and in a moist environment for the next 36 hours. Therefore, additional strengthening is likely during that time period. In a couple of days, the cyclone is forecast to begin moving over cooler waters, and into a drier and a much more stable atmospheric environment. This should result in rapid weakening, and Olaf is expected to become a remnant low this weekend. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one, and continues to be in good agreement with the IVCN intensity consensus aid. Although the NHC forecast does not explicitly show Olaf becoming a hurricane, this could still occur Thursday or Thursday night. Olaf continues to move slowly northwestward, or 325/5 kt. A mid-level ridge building over northern Mexico should help maintain this heading for a couple of days with a gradual increase in forward speed. By Friday night, Olaf is expected to turn west-northwestward as it weakens, and by Saturday a westward motion is forecast when the shallow cyclone is steered by the surrounding low-level flow. The overall model guidance shifted slightly to the east through 48 hours, and thus the NHC track forecast was nudged in that direction for that time frame. Because of this track shift, probabilities of tropical storm and hurricane conditions have increased for southern portions of Baja California Sur. Therefore, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for portions of this area. After 48 h, the guidance has shifted a little to the south, and the NHC forecast was tweaked in that direction as well. Key Messages: 1. Olaf is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity while it passes to the southwest of the southern portion of Baja California Sur Thursday and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible across that area beginning late Thursday. Interests there should continue to monitor the progress of Olaf. 2. Heavy rains associated with Tropical Storm Olaf are possible across portions of far southern Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 19.4N 107.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 20.2N 108.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 21.2N 109.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 22.3N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 23.2N 112.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 23.5N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 23.5N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 23.1N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z 22.4N 120.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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