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Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 6

2021-09-09 04:36:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 090236 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO TODOS SANTOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLAF. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 108.0W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 108.0W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.8N 108.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.9N 109.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.8N 111.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.4N 113.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.5N 114.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.3N 115.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.6N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 21.7N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 108.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 09/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Storm Mindy (AT3/AL132021)

2021-09-09 03:17:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CENTER OF MINDY MOVING ALONG THE COAST OF APALACHEE BAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 the center of Mindy was located near 29.9, -84.5 with movement NE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Mindy Graphics

2021-09-09 01:41:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 23:41:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 21:29:15 GMT

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Tropical Storm Mindy Public Advisory Number 1A

2021-09-09 01:40:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021 099 WTNT33 KNHC 082340 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mindy Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 700 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...CENTER OF MINDY ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 85.4W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mexico Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mindy was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 85.4 West. Mindy is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and a northeast to east-northeast motion is expected to continue over the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is expected to cross the coastline of the Florida Panhandle during the next hour or two, then cross portions of the Florida Panhandle and southeastern Georgia tonight. Mindy is then expected to move offshore of the southeastern United States into the western Atlantic Ocean by tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Mindy makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) manly to the southeast of the center. During the past few hours, NOAA buoy 42039 reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 mph (86 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). NOAA buoy 42039 reported a minimum pressure of 1006.5 mb (29.72) as the center passed nearby, HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches across the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area later this evening and tonight. TORNADOES: A few isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of the Florida Panhandle this evening into tomorrow morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Summary for Tropical Storm Olaf (EP5/EP152021)

2021-09-09 01:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...OLAF FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 6:00 PM MDT Wed Sep 8 the center of Olaf was located near 19.7, -107.7 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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