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Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-07-25 04:48:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 250248 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 0300 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE MOUTH OF RIO GRANDE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO SARGENT TEXAS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO MESQUITE BAY TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS * MESQUITE BAY TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA. INTERESTS IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 94.8W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 15SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 94.8W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 94.5W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 27.1N 96.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.0N 97.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.6N 99.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.9N 101.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.2N 102.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 94.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Graphics
2020-07-25 04:41:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 25 Jul 2020 02:41:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 25 Jul 2020 03:24:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-07-25 04:40:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 250240 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 Although there has been a recent increase in deep convection in association with Gonzalo, data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft continues to show that the tropical cyclone is poorly organized. The aircraft has not yet found winds to support tropical storm strength, however the advisory intensity will remain a possibly generous 35-kt until the aircraft completes its mission overnight. There is also some possibility that this recent convective burst could result in some short-term re-organization. However, with the system losing organization over the past day or so, it is becoming less likely that the small cyclone will be able to significantly recover due to the nearby dry mid-level environment. The updated NHC intensity forecast no longer calls for any re-strengthening, and Gonzalo could even become a tropical depression before reaching the Windward Islands. After that time, dry air and Gonzalo's close proximity to the coast of Venezuela are likely to cause the system to weaken and degenerate into a trough of low pressure. The NHC forecast now calls for dissipation by 60 h, but this could occur sooner. Gonzalo continues moving generally westward or 270/15 kt. The system is not expected to gain much latitude as it should continue moving westward to west-northwestward within the low-level easterly flow. The track guidance continues to trend southward and the NHC track forecast has again been shifted in that direction. The new track lies to the south of the consensus aids, closest to the GFS and UKMET ensemble means. Key Messages 1. Gonzalo is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to a portion of the southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect for some of the islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Gonzalo is expected to produce heavy rain over portions of the southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 10.0N 57.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 10.4N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 11.3N 62.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 12.2N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 12.7N 69.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gonzalo (AT2/AL072020)
2020-07-25 04:39:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GONZALO FORECAST TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING SATURDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Jul 24 the center of Gonzalo was located near 10.0, -57.1 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-07-25 04:39:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 250239 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0300 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * TOBAGO * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 57.1W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 57.1W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 56.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 10.4N 59.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.3N 62.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.2N 66.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.7N 69.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 57.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 25/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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