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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-07-25 04:39:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 250239 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0300 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRENADA 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X 20(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 14
2020-07-25 04:39:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 250239 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 ...GONZALO FORECAST TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 57.1W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF TRINIDAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 57.1 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern Windward Islands Saturday afternoon or evening and over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea and the system is forecast to dissipate by Sunday night or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web a www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning on Saturday. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in northeastern Venezuela. Rainfall in Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago could lead to areas of flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Hanna (AT3/AL082020)
2020-07-25 01:56:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HANNA FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE IN SOUTH TEXAS TOMORROW... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT... As of 7:00 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 the center of Hanna was located near 27.3, -94.4 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hanna Public Advisory Number 8A
2020-07-25 01:56:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 242356 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hanna Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 700 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 ...HANNA FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE IN SOUTH TEXAS TOMORROW... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 94.4W ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 195 MI...305 KM ENE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to Sargent Texas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to Mesquite Bay Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay Texas * Mesquite Bay to San Luis Pass Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coasts should monitor the progress of Hanna. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 94.4 West. Hanna is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion should continue through Saturday morning. A gradual turn toward the west-southwest is expected Saturday night and that motion should continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Hanna should make landfall along the Texas coast within the hurricane warning area Saturday afternoon or early evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Hanna is expected to become a hurricane before the cyclone makes landfall on Saturday. Steady to rapid weakening is expected after Hanna moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hanna can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Baffin Bay to Sargent TX...including Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...2 to 4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay TX...1 to 3 ft North of Sargent to High Island TX...including Galveston Bay...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area later tonight or Saturday morning. RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches through Sunday night in south Texas and into the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas. This rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor to moderate river flooding in south Texas. 3 to 5 inches of rain is expected along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts. SURF: Swells generated by Hanna are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A brief tornado or two will be possible, mainly overnight, across portions of the upper Texas and Louisiana Coasts. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Hanna Graphics
2020-07-25 01:56:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 24 Jul 2020 23:56:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 24 Jul 2020 21:32:03 GMT
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