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Tropical Storm Hanna Public Advisory Number 8
2020-07-24 22:50:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 242050 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hanna Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 ...HANNA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 94.3W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ENE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Baffin Bay northward to Mesquite Bay, Texas. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Baffin Bay to Sargent, Texas, including Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay and Matagorda Bay. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to Sargent Texas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to Mesquite Bay Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay Texas * Mesquite Bay to San Luis Pass Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coasts should monitor the progress of Hanna. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 94.3 West. Hanna is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion should continue through Saturday morning. A gradual turn toward the west-southwest is expected Saturday night and that motion should continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, center of Hanna should make landfall along the Texas coast within the hurricane warning area Saturday afternoon or early evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast for the next 24 hours, and Hanna is expected to become a hurricane before the cyclone makes landfall. Steady to rapid weakening is expected after Hanna moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches) based on nearby oil rig reports. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hanna can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Baffin Bay to Sargent TX...including Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...2 to 4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay TX...1 to 3 ft North of Sargent to High Island TX...including Galveston Bay...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area tonight or Saturday morning. RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches through Sunday night in south Texas and into the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas. This rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor to moderate river flooding in south Texas. 3 to 5 inches of rain is expected along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts. SURF: Swells generated by Hanna are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A brief tornado or two will be possible, mainly overnight, across portions of the upper Texas and Louisiana Coasts. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Hanna Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-07-24 22:50:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 242050 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 2100 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GALVESTON TX 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOUSTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FREEPORT TX 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 42 3(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) GFMX 280N 950W 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 2 7( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) PORT O CONNOR 34 2 19(21) 8(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) ROCKPORT TX 34 X 32(32) 18(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 33(33) 28(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 21 51(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) GFMX 270N 960W 50 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MCALLEN TX 34 X 2( 2) 31(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 5( 5) 30(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-07-24 22:50:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 242050 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 2100 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BAFFIN BAY NORTHWARD TO MESQUITE BAY TEXAS. A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BAFFIN BAY TO SARGENT, TEXAS, INCLUDING CORPUS CHRISTI BAY...COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY... SAN ANTONIO BAY AND MATAGORDA BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO SARGENT TEXAS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO MESQUITE BAY TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS * MESQUITE BAY TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE, DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 94.3W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 94.3W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 93.8W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 27.4N 95.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 27.3N 97.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.0N 98.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.6N 100.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 25.6N 102.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 94.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Graphics
2020-07-24 22:38:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 24 Jul 2020 20:38:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 24 Jul 2020 20:38:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-07-24 22:37:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 242037 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Gonzalo earlier this afternoon and found it to very poorly organized. The aircraft even reported seeing multiple low-level swirls which is surprising given the small size of the cyclone. The highest flight-level winds measured by the plane were 41 kt while the highest believable SFMR values were right around 35 kt. Based on that data, Gonzalo's intensity has been lowered to 35 kt. Small systems like Gonzalo are notorious for quick changes in structure and intensity, both up and down. Therefore, despite its current downswing, it is too soon to say for sure that Gonzalo will not restrengthen to some degree before it reaches the southern Windward Islands. That said, confidence in the intensity forecast is a little higher now that we have better data to base the forecast on and it does not seem likely that Gonzalo will overcome the dry air that is currently inhibiting its development. Given the current structure of the tropical storm, the NHC intensity forecast has been lowered significantly, but still allows for some slight restrengthening during the next 24 h. The new forecast is much closer to the intensity consensus, below only the HWRF model which does not appear to have a realistic initialization. Once Gonzalo reaches the eastern Caribbean, weakening is anticipated and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, if not sooner. Gonzalo has sped westward all day with a motion near 270/16 kt. The guidance continues to insist that Gonzalo will gain a little latitude in the near future, and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is still forecast for the next few days. The NHC track forecast has again been shifted southward, but now lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and very near the various track consensus aids. Key Messages 1. Gonzalo is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions across portions of the southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect for some of the islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Gonzalo is expected to produce heavy rain over portions of the southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 10.0N 55.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 10.4N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 11.4N 61.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 12.2N 64.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 13.1N 67.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 13.4N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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