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Subtropical Storm Alberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-05-26 04:44:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT MAY 26 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 260244 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018 0300 UTC SAT MAY 26 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KEY WEST FL 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 11(22) 2(24) X(24) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 11(23) 2(25) X(25) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 16(38) 3(41) X(41) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 25(33) 13(46) 3(49) X(49) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 20(40) 4(44) 1(45) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 26(41) 6(47) 1(48) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) X(14) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 2(15) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 9(21) 1(22) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 26(37) 9(46) 1(47) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) 1(12) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 26(39) 9(48) 1(49) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) 1(14) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 24(55) 6(61) X(61) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 2(22) 1(23) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 9(41) 1(42) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 1(13) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) 10(36) 1(37) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 7(29) 2(31) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 19(27) 5(32) 1(33) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 15(32) 5(37) X(37) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) 1(12) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 1(16) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 5(23) 1(24) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14) 1(15) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) 1(15) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 26 36(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 1 8( 9) 4(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) ISLE OF PINES 34 4 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Subtropical Storm Alberto (AT1/AL012018)
2018-05-26 04:44:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri May 25 the center of Alberto was located near 19.4, -85.7 with movement E at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Public Advisory Number 3
2018-05-26 04:44:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 260244 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 1000 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018 ...ALBERTO STILL MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 85.7W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Horseshoe Beach Florida to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Indian Pass Florida to Grand Isle Louisiana * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the Yucatan and Cuba portions of the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the United States portion of that watch area within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 85.7 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later tonight, with a faster motion toward the north expected Saturday through Sunday. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, with little change in strength forecast on Monday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United States later this weekend and continue into early next week. Flooding potential will increase across this region early next week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the United States watch area beginning on Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over the Florida Keys and parts of southern and southwestern Florida beginning Saturday evening. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-05-26 04:44:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT MAY 26 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 260244 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018 0300 UTC SAT MAY 26 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HORSESHOE BEACH FLORIDA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE MEXICO * CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO * INDIAN PASS TO GRAND ISLE * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE YUCATAN AND CUBA PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES PORTION OF THAT WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 85.7W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 85.7W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 85.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.7N 85.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 22.9N 85.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.4N 85.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 27.0N 86.3W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 29.5N 87.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 0SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 32.5N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 36.5N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 85.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Graphics
2018-05-26 01:51:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 25 May 2018 23:51:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 25 May 2018 20:52:34 GMT
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