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Subtropical Storm ALEX Public Advisory Number 1
2016-01-13 21:31:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED JAN 13 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 132031 TCPAT1 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 500 PM AST WED JAN 13 2016 ...OUT OF SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 30.8W ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Alex. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system over the eastern Atlantic has developed into a subtropical storm. At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alex was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 30.8 West. The storm is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Alex is expected to become an extratopical cyclone before reaching the Azores on Friday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale force winds are expected to begin over portions of Azores by late Thursday or early Friday. RAINFALL: Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the Azores through Friday, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Subtropical Storm ALEX Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2016-01-13 21:31:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JAN 13 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 132031 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 2100 UTC WED JAN 13 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) 18(18) 18(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Subtropical Storm ALEX Forecast Advisory Number 1
2016-01-13 21:31:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JAN 13 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 132030 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 2100 UTC WED JAN 13 2016 INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALEX. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 30.8W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 270SE 420SW 720NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 30.8W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 31.4W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.9N 29.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.0N 28.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.3N 27.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 42.3N 28.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 100NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 56.0N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 100NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 30.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Climate shift ushers in subtropical butterfly
2015-11-11 22:30:00| Climate Ark Climate Change & Global Warming Newsfeed
Guardian: Butterflies are full of surprises and this year they have saved their biggest until last: in the midst of an awful November, subtropical butterflies have been spotted on Englands south coast. The remarkable appearance of the long-tailed blue, a butterfly happiest in the heat of Africa or Australia, raises a mystery: will these insects simply die this winter? Until recently, the long-tailed blue, or Lampides boeticus, very occasionally arrived in hot summers: notably in 1945, and 1990 when it...
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Subtropical Storm ANA Graphics
2015-05-09 08:00:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 May 2015 06:00:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 May 2015 03:03:44 GMT
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