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Subtropical Storm Alberto Public Advisory Number 2

2018-05-25 22:48:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 252048 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 400 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 86.3W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast of the United States from Horseshoe Beach, Florida, westward to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast of the United States from Indian Pass, Florida, westward to Grand Isle, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Indian Pass to Grand Isle * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the Yucatan and Cuba portions of the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the United States portion of that watch area within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 86.3 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow and erratic motion toward the north is expected tonight. From Saturday afternoon into Sunday, a general northward motion at a faster forward speed is expected, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, with little change in strength forecast on Monday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches) based on recent data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern Untied States later this weekend and continue into early next week. Flooding potential will increase across this region early next week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the United States watch area beginning on Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Advisory Number 2

2018-05-25 22:47:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI MAY 25 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 252047 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018 2100 UTC FRI MAY 25 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM HORSESHOE BEACH FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA WESTWARD TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HORSESHOE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE MEXICO * CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO * INDIAN PASS TO GRAND ISLE * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE YUCATAN AND CUBA PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES PORTION OF THAT WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 86.3W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 86.3W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 86.4W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.7N 86.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 22.5N 85.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 24.8N 85.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 26.8N 86.2W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 29.0N 87.8W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 0SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 31.7N 88.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 35.2N 87.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 86.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Subtropical Storm Alberto (AT1/AL012018)

2018-05-25 19:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ALBERTO MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 1:00 PM CDT Fri May 25 the center of Alberto was located near 19.5, -86.5 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Subtropical Storm Alberto Public Advisory Number 1A

2018-05-25 19:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 251732 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 100 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018 ...ALBERTO MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 86.5W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests along the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Alberto. Tropical storm and storm surge watches could be required for portions of this area later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 86.5 West. The storm has been nearly stationary during the past several hours. However, a general slow motion toward the north is expected through the weekend, followed by a northwest turn by Monday. On the foreast track, Alberto is expected to pass near the eastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula tonight, be near the western tip of Cuba Saturday morning, emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast for the next 72 hours. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern Untied States later this weekend and continue into early next week. Flooding potential will increase across this region early next week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Subtropical Storm Alberto Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

2018-05-25 17:25:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Fri, 25 May 2018 15:25:36 GMT

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