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Subtropical Depression Four Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2020-06-22 22:40:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 22 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 222040 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 2100 UTC MON JUN 22 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Subtropical Depression Four (AT4/AL042020)

2020-06-22 22:40:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST... ...FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Jun 22 the center of Four was located near 38.2, -65.7 with movement ENE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tags: summary depression subtropical subtropical depression

Subtropical Depression Four Public Advisory Number 1

2020-06-22 22:40:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Jun 22 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 222040 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Depression Four Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 500 PM AST Mon Jun 22 2020 ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST... ...FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.2N 65.7W ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Four was located near latitude 38.2 North, longitude 65.7 West. The subtropical depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue through tonight. A motion toward the northeast is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight and early Tuesday, and the subtropical depression could briefly become a subtropical storm. Slow weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday afternoon or evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Subtropical Depression Four Forecast Advisory Number 1

2020-06-22 22:40:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 22 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 222040 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 2100 UTC MON JUN 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 65.7W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 65.7W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 66.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 38.5N 64.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 39.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 40.5N 59.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 42.5N 56.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 45.0N 53.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 47.8N 50.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.2N 65.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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