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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2017-10-04 13:44:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 041144 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea have become better organized since yesterday. This system is expected to become a tropical depression later today while it moves northwestward toward the coast of Nicaragua. The low should move slowly northwestward across or near the eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras on Thursday, move into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by Friday, and emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. Interests in Nicaragua, Honduras, the Yucatan peninsula and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this system as watches or warnings could be issued later today. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Regardless of development, this system will produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days, likely causing flash floods and mudslides. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A trough of low pressure located over west-central Cuba and extending northward into the Straits of Florida is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the southern peninsula of Florida, the northwestern Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Although significant tropical development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds, brief squalls will likely produce locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds over portions of the Bahamas and the southern Florida peninsula during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2017-10-04 07:26:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 040526 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to steadily become more conducive for development, and this system is expected to become a tropical depression within the next couple of days. The large disturbance should move slowly northwestward across or near the eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, move into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Interests in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this system over the next few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A trough of low pressure located over central Cuba and extending northward into the Straits of Florida is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the southern peninsula of Florida, the northwestern Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Although significant development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds, brief squalls will likely produce locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds over portions of the Bahamas and the southern Florida peninsula during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2017-10-04 01:07:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 032306 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with the broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is beginning to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to steadily become more conducive for development, and this system is expected to become a tropical depression within the next few days. The large disturbance should move slowly northwestward to northward across or near the eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, move into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Thursday or Friday, and emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system over the next couple of days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Wednesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A trough of low pressure located over central Cuba and extending northward into the Straits of Florida is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the southern peninsula of Florida, the northwestern Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Reports from land stations along the southeastern Florida coast, in the northwestern Bahamas, and from nearby ships, indicate that wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph have been occurring in some of the heavier showers. Although significant development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds, brief squalls will likely produce locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds over portions of the Bahamas and the southern Florida peninsula during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2017-10-03 23:01:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 031730 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure has formed over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for development, and this system could become a tropical depression within the next few days while it drifts northwestward to northward across the northwestern Caribbean and adjacent land areas and into the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A trough of low pressure located over Cuba and near the northwestern Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized showers and gusty winds. Although significant development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds, this system will likely produce heavy rain and gusty winds over portions of the Bahamas and Florida during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2017-10-03 19:30:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 031730 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure has formed over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for development, and this system could become a tropical depression within the next few days while it drifts northwestward to northward across the northwestern Caribbean and adjacent land areas and into the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A trough of low pressure located over Cuba and near the northwestern Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized showers and gusty winds. Although significant development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds, this system will likely produce heavy rain and gusty winds over portions of the Bahamas and Florida during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
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