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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2016-08-26 07:49:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 260549 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 1100 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located between the southeastern Bahamas and the northeastern coast of Cuba. The low is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly to its south and east, and upper-level winds are not expected to be particularly conducive for development during the next day or so while this system moves more slowly toward the west-northwest at about 10 mph. However, environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development over the weekend or early next week while the system moves through the Straits of Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains, with the potential to cause flash floods and mud slides, are likely over Hispaniola and eastern and central Cuba during the next couple of days. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are also possible over portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Interests in South Florida and the Florida Keys should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance since some impacts, such as heavy rains and gusty winds, could begin over weekend and continue through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent An area of disturbed weather is located over the northern portion of the Gulf of Mexico. Surface pressures in this area are high at the moment, and little to no development of this system is expected before it reaches the coast of Texas over the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent $$ Forecaster Berg
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atlantic
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tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2016-08-26 01:29:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 252329 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 1100 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph through the southeastern Bahamas. This system has become less organized since yesterday, with only minimal associated shower activity, and the chances for development during the next 2 days have decreased. Overall, environmental conditions are not expected to be as conducive for development of this system as anticipated earlier this week. However, upper-level winds could become a little more favorable over the weekend or early next week when the system is expected to be near the Florida Keys or over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains, with the potential to cause flash floods and mudslides, are likely over Hispaniola and eastern Cuba through tomorrow. This system could produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas during the next day or two. Interests in South Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this disturbance since it is possible that some impacts, such as heavy rains and gusty winds, will occur beginning this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2016-08-25 19:47:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 251747 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 1200 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph through the southeastern Bahamas. Satellite wind data and reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this morning indicate that the system still lacks a closed circulation, and that the strongest winds associated with the system likely have decreased to below tropical storm strength. In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity has become significantly less organized during the past 24 hours. Although upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development during the next day or so, they could become a little more favorable over the weekend or early next week when the wave is expected to approach southern Florida or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains, with the potential to cause flash floods and mudslides, are likely over Hispaniola today. This system could produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas during the next day or two. Interests in South Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this disturbance since it is possible that some impacts, at a minimum heavy rains and gusty winds, will occur beginning this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2016-08-25 13:54:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 251154 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane Gaston, located about 1200 miles east of the Leeward Island. An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is centered just southeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands. The wave is producing gale-force winds over water to the north of Hispaniola, however, satellite images indicate that the shower and thunderstorm activity is well removed from the area of lowest pressure. Surface data also indicate that the low continues to lack a well-defined center. Although upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for development during the next day or so, they are expected to become a little more favorable by the weekend, and this system could become a tropical depression during the next couple of days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the wave later this morning. Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely over Puerto Rico today, and strong winds and heavy rainfall are likely over portions of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and central Bahamas during the next couple of days. These rains could lead to flash floods and mudslides. Please consult products issued by your local meteorological offices and High Seas Forecasts from the National Weather Service for further details. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance since it is increasing likely that some impacts, at a minimum heavy rains and gusty winds, will occur beginning this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Brown/Brennan
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2016-08-25 07:37:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 250536 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane Gaston, located about 1215 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles northwest of Puerto Rico is producing gale-force winds over water to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. However, satellite images indicate that the shower activity remains disorganized, and the low continues to lack a well-defined center. Although upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for development, this system could still become a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions have the potential to become more conducive for development over the weekend when the system is near the central or northwestern Bahamas. Regardless of development, gusty winds and heavy rains are likely to occur over portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern and central Bahamas during the next couple of days, which could lead to possible flash floods and mudslides. Please consult products issued by your local meteorological offices and High Seas Forecasts from the National Weather Service for further details. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later this morning. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Because of the large uncertainties regarding this system's development and future track, it is too early to speculate on what specific impacts might occur in the northwestern Bahamas, Florida or beyond. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
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