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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 8

2021-06-14 16:50:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 141431 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 1500 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 128.6W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 128.6W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 128.3W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 10.9N 129.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 10.6N 130.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 10.3N 132.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 10.2N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 10.2N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 10.3N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 10.7N 137.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 11.1N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 128.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 8

2021-06-14 16:50:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 141432 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 After being nearly devoid of deep convection for much of the night, a new burst of convection has redeveloped near the center of the cyclone's circulation. A blend of the latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support maintaining an initial intensity of 35 kt for this advisory. Carlos is moving west-southwest at 7 kt, steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. Most of the track guidance is now in good agreement on keeping this ridge intact over the next several days, forcing Carlos on the same west-southwest trajectory for the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn to the west by midweek. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one through 48 h, and a little faster and south of it beyond that time. Most guidance remains to the left of the latest NHC forecast, so additional adjustments may be required later today. Satellite images show a vast area of dry and stable air to the north and west of Carlos, with stratocumulus being drawn into the western portion of the cyclone's circulation. This undoubtedly helped to contribute to the sputtering of convective activity overnight. The ongoing intrusions of dry, stable air should continue to periodically disrupt the development of deep convection over the next day or so, which should cause Carlos to slowly weaken. By 36-48 h, southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 20 kt is expected to hasten the weakening process, resulting in Carlos degenerating into a remnant low by midweek. Thereafter, only sporadic convection is expected to develop in association with the remnant low as it gradually spins down. The latest NHC intensity forecast is nearly the same as the previous one and is in agreement with the bulk of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 11.3N 128.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 10.9N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 10.6N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 10.3N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 10.2N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0000Z 10.2N 134.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z 10.3N 135.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z 10.7N 137.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z 11.1N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2021-06-14 16:50:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 141432 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 1500 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) 1(10) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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