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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 45
2020-09-23 17:09:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 231435 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BURGEO NFLD 34 71 X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) PTX BASQUES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PTX BASQUES 50 29 X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) EDDY POINT NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) EDDY POINT NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SYDNEY NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SYDNEY NS 50 66 X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) SABLE ISLAND 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HALIFAX NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONCTON NB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Graphics
2020-09-23 16:42:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2020 14:42:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2020 15:25:16 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Graphics
2020-09-23 13:46:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2020 11:46:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2020 09:25:25 GMT
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-23 13:45:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TEDDY CAUSING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA... As of 8:00 AM AST Wed Sep 23 the center of Teddy was located near 44.8, -62.3 with movement NNE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Public Advisory Number 44A
2020-09-23 13:45:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 231145 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 44A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 800 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 ...TEDDY CAUSING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.8N 62.3W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove * Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia * North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia * Magdalen Islands Quebec * Prince Edward Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy was located near latitude 44.8 North, longitude 62.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia soon, and then near or over Newfoundland by tonight, and be east of Labrador on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so, but Teddy should remain a strong post-tropical cyclone while passing over Nova Scotia and near Newfoundland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 520 miles (835 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 51 mph (81 km/h) were recently reported at Hart Island along the eastern coast of Nova Scotia. The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia warning area. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning area this afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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