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Hurricane Teddy Graphics
2020-09-22 10:53:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 08:53:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 08:53:09 GMT
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 40
2020-09-22 10:51:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 851 WTNT45 KNHC 220850 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 Recent satellite imagery shows that the central convection is diminishing, with a comma-like cloud pattern developing. The current intensity is held at 85 kt based on continuity from the earlier aircraft mission. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Teddy later today which should provide a good estimate of the intensity. Teddy is moving along the northern part of the Gulf Stream and should begin to move into cooler waters later today. Therefore weakening is expected over the next couple of days. However, baroclinic forcing should keep the cyclone at or near hurricane strength while it approaches Nova Scotia. The official intensity forecast is above the model consensus to qualitatively account for baroclinic effects. After 72 hours, or sooner, post-tropical Teddy should become absorbed or merge with a large extratropical low over the north Atlantic. Teddy has accelerated somewhat and is now moving north-northeastward near 24 kt. The hurricane is moving on the eastern side of a mid-tropospheric cyclone centered off the northeastern U.S. coast. Teddy should continue its north-northwestward motion today and then turn north-northeastward as the mid-tropospheric cyclone shifts northeastward. This will take post-tropical Teddy over Nova Scotia and near Newfoundland during the next couple of days. The official forecast is close to the corrected dynamical model consensus, or HFIP, and similar to the previous NHC track. The wind field of Teddy should continue to expand today and tonight, and the extent of 12-ft seas is also growing. See the Key Message regarding swells due to Teddy. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada late today through Thursday, where direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge are expected. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland. 2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 3. Heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy between today and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 38.4N 62.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 40.9N 63.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 43.9N 62.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 47.5N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/0600Z 52.0N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 24/1800Z 57.0N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/0600Z 61.0N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40
2020-09-22 10:51:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 220850 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 2( 2) 27(29) 6(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 5( 5) 47(52) 9(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PTX BASQUES 34 X 14(14) 56(70) 7(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) 27(27) 7(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) EDDY POINT NS 34 3 59(62) 27(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) EDDY POINT NS 50 X 7( 7) 37(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) EDDY POINT NS 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X 40(40) 44(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) SYDNEY NS 50 X 2( 2) 33(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 44 32(76) 6(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) SABLE ISLAND 50 X 13(13) 7(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SABLE ISLAND 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 27 58(85) 3(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) HALIFAX NS 50 X 40(40) 7(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) HALIFAX NS 64 X 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) YARMOUTH NS 34 15 25(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) MONCTON NB 34 X 16(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ST JOHN NB 34 2 11(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) EASTPORT ME 34 4 14(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BAR HARBOR ME 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-22 10:50:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TEDDY HEADED FOR ATLANTIC CANADA... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 22 the center of Teddy was located near 38.4, -62.4 with movement NNW at 28 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 40
2020-09-22 10:50:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 220850 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 ...TEDDY HEADED FOR ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.4N 62.4W ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia * North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia * Magdalen Islands Quebec * Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland * Prince Edward Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be required on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 38.4 North, longitude 62.4 West. Teddy is moving toward the north-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northeast is expected by early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday, and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Although some weakening is likely later today and Wednesday, Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near and over Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas late today or early Wednesday. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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