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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 40

2020-09-22 10:50:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 220850 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO MEAT COVE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEAT COVE TO TIDNISH NOVA SCOTIA * NORTH OF DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE NOVA SCOTIA * MAGDALEN ISLANDS QUEBEC * PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED ON TUESDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 62.4W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. 50 KT.......150NE 150SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......300NE 300SE 180SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..720NE 480SE 660SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 62.4W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.9N 63.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 50 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 180NW. 34 KT...400NE 320SE 250SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 43.9N 62.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...320NE 290SE 250SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 47.5N 60.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 250SE 210SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 52.0N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 170SE 190SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 57.0N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 190SE 190SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 61.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 200SW 250NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.4N 62.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 22/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane Teddy Graphics

2020-09-22 07:56:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 05:56:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 03:33:17 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)

2020-09-22 07:55:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TEDDY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... As of 2:00 AM AST Tue Sep 22 the center of Teddy was located near 37.5, -62.1 with movement NNW at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 39A

2020-09-22 07:55:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 220555 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 39A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 200 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 ...TEDDY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.5N 62.1W ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia * North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia * Magdalen Islands Quebec * Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland * Prince Edward Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be required on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 37.5 North, longitude 62.1 West. Teddy is moving toward the north-northwest near 25 mph (41 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northeast is expected by early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday, and then near or over Newfoundland later on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy should begin to weaken tonight and Wednesday, and become a strong post-tropical cyclone near Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas late today or early Wednesday. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: From today through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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