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Tropical Storm Eugene Graphics
2017-07-11 22:37:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Jul 2017 20:37:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Jul 2017 21:23:42 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 17
2017-07-11 22:34:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 112034 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 The deep convection associated with Eugene is rapidly waning. While the Dvorak assessments from ADT, SAB, and TAFB suggest a low-end tropical storm at this time, an AMSU pass back at 1417Z generated intensity estimates of around 60 kt from CIRA and CIMSS. However, it is unlikely that these maximum winds are valid because of the increased stability over the stratocumulus-blanketed waters. A blend of the Dvorak and AMSU estimates gives 45 kt for the initial intensity. The diminished deep convection and visible imagery allow for a more accurate determination of Eugene's initial position and motion, which is northwestward at 8 kt. The tropical cyclone is expected to continue moving in the same direction and speed for the next couple of days, as it is rounding the southwestern portion of a mid-level subtropical ridge. The official track forecast is nearly unchanged and is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique. Eugene should continue its weakening due to ingestion of stable air as it moves over the cool waters west of Baja California. It is expected that the cyclone will lose its deep convection and become a remnant low in about a day - or sooner - and dissipate completely in four to five days. The official intensity forecast is the same as that previously and is based upon the IVCN multi-model consensus technique. Swells generated by Eugene will continue to propagate northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during the next couple days, causing high surf and dangerous rip current conditions. Please refer to statements issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 21.7N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 22.5N 120.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 23.6N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/0600Z 24.7N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/1800Z 25.8N 123.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z 27.6N 125.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1800Z 28.5N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Storm Eugene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2017-07-11 22:33:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 11 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 112032 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 2100 UTC TUE JUL 11 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 30N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Summary for Tropical Storm Eugene (EP5/EP052017)
2017-07-11 22:32:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM EUGENE PRODUCING HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 11 the center of Eugene was located near 21.7, -120.0 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eugene Public Advisory Number 17
2017-07-11 22:32:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 112032 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eugene Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM EUGENE PRODUCING HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 120.0W ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eugene was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 120.0 West. Eugene is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next two days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Eugene is expected to become a remnant low on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Eugene are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and will spread northward to portions of southern California today and Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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