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Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Advisory Number 16
2017-07-11 16:51:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 11 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 111451 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 1500 UTC TUE JUL 11 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 119.6W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 119.6W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 119.3W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.3N 120.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.4N 121.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.6N 122.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.7N 123.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.6N 124.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 28.8N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 119.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 16
2017-07-11 16:51:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 111451 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Deep convection associated with Eugene is diminishing in depth and areal coverage. Consequently, subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB as well as objective ADT values from CIMSS continue to drop. The initial intensity is set at 45 kt, though this is with a substantial amount of uncertainty. A 0949Z AMSR2 microwave image helped to locate the center of Eugene this morning. The system is moving toward the northwest at about 9 kt. Eugene is expected to continue moving in the same direction and speed for the next couple of days, as it is rounding the southwestern portion of a mid-level subtropical ridge. The official track forecast is nearly unchanged and continues to be based upon the multi-model consensus technique TVCN. Eugene has been weakening due to ingestion of cool and dry air as it moves into the stratocumulus-infested waters west of Baja California. This will continue due to the northwestward track over even cooler SSTs during the next two days. It is expected that Eugene will lose its deep convection and become a remnant low in 24-36 hr and dissipate completely in about 5 days. The official intensity forecast is slightly lower than that previously and is based upon the multi-model consensus technique IVCN. Swells generated by Eugene will continue to propagate northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during the next couple days, causing high surf and dangerous rip current conditions. Please refer to statements issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 21.3N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 22.3N 120.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 23.4N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 24.6N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/1200Z 25.7N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1200Z 27.6N 124.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1200Z 28.8N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Storm Eugene Graphics
2017-07-11 10:40:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Jul 2017 08:40:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Jul 2017 09:23:15 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 15
2017-07-11 10:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110836 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 The areal coverage of cold cloud tops continues to decrease, and microwave images indicate that all the remaining deep convection is restricted to the northwestern quadrant. Based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak final-T and CI numbers, Eugene is estimated to have maximum winds of 55 kt. With sea surface temperatures decreasing below 22 deg C ahead of Eugene, the cyclone's winds and convection will continue to wane, and it will likely degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours. Based on the global models, the remnant low should dissipate by day 5. Eugene remains on a steady northwestward heading of 325/8 kt. Little change in this trajectory is expected during the next several days as Eugene moves toward a break in the subtropical ridge located off the northern Baja California coast. Some reduction in forward speed is likely by day 3 and 4 when the remnant low is steered by weaker low-level winds. The updated NHC track forecast is very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus and is not too different from the previous forecast. Swells generated by Eugene will continue to propagate northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during the next few days, causing high surf and dangerous rip current conditions. Please refer to statements issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 20.6N 118.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 21.6N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 22.8N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 24.0N 121.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0600Z 25.2N 122.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0600Z 27.1N 124.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z 28.5N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Eugene (EP5/EP052017)
2017-07-11 10:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EUGENE GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER COLDER WATER... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 the center of Eugene was located near 20.6, -118.7 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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