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Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 17
2017-07-11 22:34:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 112034 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 The deep convection associated with Eugene is rapidly waning. While the Dvorak assessments from ADT, SAB, and TAFB suggest a low-end tropical storm at this time, an AMSU pass back at 1417Z generated intensity estimates of around 60 kt from CIRA and CIMSS. However, it is unlikely that these maximum winds are valid because of the increased stability over the stratocumulus-blanketed waters. A blend of the Dvorak and AMSU estimates gives 45 kt for the initial intensity. The diminished deep convection and visible imagery allow for a more accurate determination of Eugene's initial position and motion, which is northwestward at 8 kt. The tropical cyclone is expected to continue moving in the same direction and speed for the next couple of days, as it is rounding the southwestern portion of a mid-level subtropical ridge. The official track forecast is nearly unchanged and is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique. Eugene should continue its weakening due to ingestion of stable air as it moves over the cool waters west of Baja California. It is expected that the cyclone will lose its deep convection and become a remnant low in about a day - or sooner - and dissipate completely in four to five days. The official intensity forecast is the same as that previously and is based upon the IVCN multi-model consensus technique. Swells generated by Eugene will continue to propagate northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during the next couple days, causing high surf and dangerous rip current conditions. Please refer to statements issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 21.7N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 22.5N 120.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 23.6N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/0600Z 24.7N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/1800Z 25.8N 123.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z 27.6N 125.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1800Z 28.5N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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