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Summary for Subtropical Storm MELISSA (AT4/AL142013)
2013-11-18 21:53:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MELLISSA STRENGTHENS OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Nov 18 the center of MELISSA was located near 29.8, -54.2 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Public Advisory Number 2
2013-11-18 21:53:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON NOV 18 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 182053 TCPAT4 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 500 PM AST MON NOV 18 2013 ...MELLISSA STRENGTHENS OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 54.2W ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY LATE TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON TUESDAY...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM...MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Forecast Advisory Number 2
2013-11-18 21:46:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON NOV 18 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 182046 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 2100 UTC MON NOV 18 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 54.2W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 60SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT.......300NE 250SE 150SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 400SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 54.2W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 54.0W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 30.7N 54.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 100SE 100SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 32.3N 53.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 34.9N 50.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 38.0N 46.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 150SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 44.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT... 60NE 200SE 300SW 250NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 50.0N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 57.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 54.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Graphics
2013-11-18 16:07:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2013 14:39:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2013 15:03:45 GMT
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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-11-18 16:01:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT MON NOV 18 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 181500 TCDAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1100 AM EDT MON NOV 18 2013 DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF A LARGE GALE-AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. FRONTAL BOUNDARIES NEAR THE CENTER APPEAR TO HAVE DISSIPATED AND SO ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE INNER CORE CONVECTION...THE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE MAY STILL HAVE A LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS. AS A RESULT...THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM RATHER THAN A TROPICAL STORM...AT LEAST FOR NOW. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWESTWARD...OR 320/08 KT. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON MELISSA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND THE AZORES. THE CYCLONE COULD POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON TUESDAY WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES UNDERNEATH A 200 MB LOW/TROUGH. HOWEVER...BY 48 HORUS AND BEYOND...A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CANADA AND THE UNITED SATES IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE MELISSA TO THE NORTHEAST. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...MELISSA IS FORECAST OT INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING TROUGH AND TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. MELISSA HAS ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 36 HOURS. THE WEAKENING SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER...BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR THE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE ICON INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MELISSA COULD ATTAIN HURRICANE STATUS IN 36-48 HOURS WHEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS AT A MINIMUM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 29.3N 53.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 30.2N 54.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 31.3N 54.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 33.6N 52.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 36.6N 48.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 42.8N 39.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/1200Z 50.0N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/1200Z 55.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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