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Tropical Storm MELISSA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2013-11-20 15:34:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 20 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 201434 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1500 UTC WED NOV 20 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 3 5 10 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 2 9 18 20 26 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 92 79 70 65 57 NA NA HURRICANE 6 11 9 10 7 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 10 8 9 6 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 1 NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 50KT 45KT 45KT 40KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 3( 3) 32(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm MELISSA Forecast Advisory Number 9
2013-11-20 15:33:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 20 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 201433 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1500 UTC WED NOV 20 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 47.7W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 26 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 180SE 160SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 480SE 420SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 47.7W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 49.0W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 37.6N 43.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 160SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 40.0N 37.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 180SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 41.5N 31.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 42.5N 24.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 42.0N 18.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...300NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N 47.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-11-20 09:36:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED NOV 20 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 200836 TCDAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 500 AM AST WED NOV 20 2013 A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF MELISSA SINCE ABOUT 0400 UTC. THIS SUGGESTS THAT MELISSA COULD BE NEARING THE EXPECTED TRANSITION FROM A SUBTROPICAL TO A TROPICAL STORM. NONETHELESS...THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE HAS NOT CHANGED...BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AS MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER AND REMAIN IN AT LEAST MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THEREFORE...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FOLLOWING THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE. POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...WHEN THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 20C. MELISSA IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/20. A CONTINUED FAST NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE MELISSA REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. DISSIPATION IS NOW PREDICTED TO OCCUR IN 4 DAYS...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 34.8N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 36.8N 46.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 39.3N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 41.4N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 22/0600Z 43.0N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/0600Z 45.0N 22.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2013-11-20 09:35:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 20 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 200835 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 0900 UTC WED NOV 20 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 3 5 10 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 4 13 17 19 25 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 93 79 71 66 58 NA NA HURRICANE 2 6 9 10 8 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 6 8 9 7 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 1 NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 40KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) 16(16) 9(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Subtropical Storm MELISSA (AT4/AL142013)
2013-11-20 09:35:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MELISSA ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Nov 20 the center of MELISSA was located near 34.8, -50.2 with movement NE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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