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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Public Advisory Number 7

2013-11-20 03:37:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE NOV 19 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 200237 TCPAT4 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1100 PM AST TUE NOV 19 2013 ...MELISSA LOSING STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.6N 52.4W ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.4 WEST. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... MELISSA COULD STILL TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MELISSA IS EXPECTED BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THURSDAY. WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2013-11-20 03:37:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 20 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 200237 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 0300 UTC WED NOV 20 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 3 4 10 11 NA TROP DEPRESSION 4 14 18 21 25 27 NA TROPICAL STORM 93 77 70 64 57 55 NA HURRICANE 3 7 10 11 8 8 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 7 9 10 7 7 NA HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 1 1 NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 40KT 40KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Forecast Advisory Number 7

2013-11-20 03:37:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 20 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 200237 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 0300 UTC WED NOV 20 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 52.4W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......210NE 180SE 160SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..600NE 600SE 600SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 52.4W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 53.2W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 35.7N 49.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 160SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 38.4N 43.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 40.8N 37.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 43.0N 31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 150SE 210SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 48.0N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...300NE 120SE 120SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 54.0N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 52.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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