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Tropical Storm BONNIE Graphics
2016-05-29 05:06:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 May 2016 02:35:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 May 2016 03:03:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 6
2016-05-29 04:36:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 290235 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 The center of Bonnie has become exposed about 50 n mi to the southeast of a bursting area of deep convection due to strong southerly vertical wind shear. Despite this ragged appearance, data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission found some believable SFMR winds northwest of the center that support increasing the initial intensity to 40 kt. Little change in intensity is expected before the center moves near or onto the South Carolina coast on Sunday, with weakening to a tropical depression expected in about 36 hours. Shear, dry air, and cool SSTs should result in Bonnie becoming a remnant low by 72 hours, although I wouldn't be surprised if this occurred a little sooner. Bonnie has moved little since the last advisory, with the 3 most recent aircraft fixes all within about 5 miles of each other. The cyclone should begin to move north-northwestward and then northward during the next 12-24 hours between a mid/upper-level trough advancing into the eastern United States and a building ridge near and west of Bermuda. After that time, a weakening Bonnie should move slowly northeastward through the end of the period. The new NHC forecast is near the previous one through 12 hours. After that time the official NHC track has been adjusted to the right of the previous one but lies left of and a bit slower than the GFS/ECMWF consensus out of respect for continuity. Note that the the shift in the guidance envelope at 24 hours and beyond is largely due to the fact that Bonnie hasn't moved much this evening. The primary impact from Bonnie will be locally heavy rainfall, which is already occurring over portions of coastal South Carolina. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 31.0N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 31.8N 80.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 32.7N 80.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/1200Z 33.1N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/0000Z 33.5N 78.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 01/0000Z 34.3N 77.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0000Z 35.0N 76.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0000Z 35.5N 75.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm BONNIE (AT2/AL022016)
2016-05-29 04:33:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BONNIE A BIT STRONGER BUT THE MAIN THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat May 28 the center of BONNIE was located near 31.0, -79.5 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm BONNIE Public Advisory Number 6
2016-05-29 04:33:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 290233 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 ...BONNIE A BIT STRONGER BUT THE MAIN THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.0N 79.5W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to Little River Inlet South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 79.5 West. Bonnie is currently stationary. A motion toward the north-northwest is expected to begin overnight, followed by a turn toward the north as the center of Bonnie moves near the coast in the warning area on Sunday. A slow northeastward motion near the central and northern coast of South Carolina is expected Sunday night and Monday. Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected overnight. Some weakening is expected to begin by late Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km), mainly to the northwest of the center. The latest estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bonnie is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts around 6 inches from central and eastern South Carolina to the Georgia border. Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected across southeastern North Carolina. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area overnight or early Sunday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 feet above ground level is possible within the tropical storm warning area during the next high tide on Sunday morning. SURF: Bonnie is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern United States coast through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible late tonight and early Sunday over the immediate South Carolina coastal region. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm BONNIE Forecast Advisory Number 6
2016-05-29 04:32:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN MAY 29 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 290231 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 0300 UTC SUN MAY 29 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 79.5W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 79.5W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 79.4W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 31.8N 80.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 32.7N 80.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 33.1N 79.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 33.5N 78.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.3N 77.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 35.0N 76.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 35.5N 75.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 79.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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