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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-05-30 10:58:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 300858 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 Radar and surface observations indicate that Bonnie has moved eastward and is now located along the coastline just east of Charleston, South Carolina. A late-arriving RapidSCAT pass from 0029 UTC showed several 25-27 kt surface wind vectors in a rain-free area 50-80 nmi south-southwest of the center. Since that time, some modest shower activity has developed in that same region, which supports maintaining Bonnie as a 25-kt depression on this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 040/04 kt. Bonnie is expected to remain a vertically shallow low pressure system throughout the forecast period, and should be steered slowly northeastward to east-northeastward by an approaching 700-500 mb shortwave trough that is expected to capture the small cyclone within the next 12 hours or so based on recent trends in water vapor satellite imagery. By Wednesday, Bonnie's forward speed is expected to increase as the cyclone moves along the northern side of the Bermuda-Azores subtropical ridge. This steering pattern should take Bonnie and its remnants across the coastline of the Carolinas during the next 2-3 days, and then offshore into the western Atlantic Ocean by days 4 and 5. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and remains close to the GFS-ECMWF model consensus. Bonnie has been convectively challenged for the past 12 hours. Only narrow bands of weak to moderate convection have persisted near the center over land during the past 6 hours, and limited convection been developing over adjacent Atlantic waters. Furthermore, the 0000 UTC Charleston, South Carolina upper-air sounding showed than Bonnie was barely holding on to warm-core, tropical cyclone status with only 1 deg C warmer temperatures than the surrounding environment indicated between 500-300 mb. Given the dry mid-level air that overlays the cyclone and continued moderate-to-strong southerly vertical wind shear for the next 48 hours or so, any significant re-strengthening appears unlikely while Bonnie remains over near the cool coastal shelf waters. The SHIPS and LGEM models re-strengthen Bonnie back to tropical storm status by 36 hours, but this seems unlikely given that the cyclone will be over 22-24 deg C sea-surface temperatures and in proximity to land. The official intensity forecast calls for Bonnie to maintain its current intensity of 25 kt throughout the forecast period and become a remnant low pressure system by 48 hours. However, the latter could occur sooner than the official forecast is indicating. The primary concern from Bonnie continues to be locally heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches have already been reported in portions of eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina, and additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 33.0N 79.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 33.3N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 33.5N 78.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 33.8N 77.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 34.4N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0600Z 35.7N 75.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/0600Z 37.3N 72.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/0600Z 38.7N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression BONNIE (AT2/AL022016)
2016-05-30 10:49:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BONNIE MOVING ALONG THE COASTLINE NEAR CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA... ...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE CAROLINAS... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon May 30 the center of BONNIE was located near 33.0, -79.5 with movement NE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Public Advisory Number 11
2016-05-30 10:49:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 300849 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 ...BONNIE MOVING ALONG THE COASTLINE NEAR CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA... ...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.0N 79.5W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Bonnie was located by NOAA Doppler radar and surface observations near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 79.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northeastward or east-northeastward motion is forecast for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Bonnie is expected to move near or along the South Carolina coast today and the North Carolina coast on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bonnie is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across east-central Georgia, central and eastern South Carolina, and eastern North Carolina with isolated maximum amounts near 4 inches. Farther north, the moisture from Bonnie will produce additional rainfall amounts of up to 2 inches across eastern portions of the mid-Atlantic region into southern New England through Wednesday. Total rainfall of more than 8 inches has already occurred over large portions of south-central South Carolina. SURF: Bonnie is expected to produce dangerous surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern United States coast through Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Advisory Number 11
2016-05-30 10:49:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON MAY 30 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 300849 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 0900 UTC MON MAY 30 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 79.5W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 79.5W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 79.6W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 33.3N 79.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.5N 78.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 33.8N 77.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.4N 77.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 35.7N 75.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 37.3N 72.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 38.7N 69.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 79.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-05-30 04:31:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 300231 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Tropical Depression Bonnie has been meandering over the Low Country of South Carolina this evening. Satellite and radar data indicate that the associated showers and thunderstorms have been shrinking in coverage and are primarily confined to the western side of the circulation over portions of South Carolina, with some outer bands over eastern North Carolina. The circulation of the system has become a little less defined this evening with some evidence of multiple vortices, and the overall appearance of the cyclone is quite ragged. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt, which is a little higher than reports from the nearby surface observations. Bonnie has not moved much since the previous advisory, and the latest initial motion estimate is a south-southeastward drift, or 160/1 kt. The depression should move slowly northeastward or east-northeastward on Monday when a shortwave trough approaches the cyclone. After that time, a slightly faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion is predicted while Bonnie moves along the northwestern side of a subtropical high pressure system. This steering pattern should take the depression, or its remnants, across the coastline of the Carolinas during the next few days and then offshore into the western Atlantic Ocean. The new track forecast has been adjusted a little to the east of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF consensus. Land interaction during the next few days combined with persistent southerly shear, dry air, and cool waters along the forecast track should prevent Bonnie from restrengthening. The NHC intensity forecast calls for a steady state system through the forecast period, but Bonnie is likely to lose its convective organization and become a remnant low in about two days, or perhaps sooner. Another possibility, however, is that the circulation of the system opens into a trough before it becomes a remnant low. The primary concern from Bonnie continues to be locally heavy rainfall. Isolated rainfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches have been reported in portions of eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 32.8N 80.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/1200Z 33.1N 79.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 31/0000Z 33.5N 79.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 31/1200Z 33.9N 78.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 01/0000Z 34.4N 77.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0000Z 35.4N 76.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/0000Z 37.0N 74.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/0000Z 38.5N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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