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Tropical Depression Fourteen Graphics
2020-08-21 22:43:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 20:43:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 21:31:52 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen (AT4/AL142020)
2020-08-21 22:42:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... As of 5:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 the center of Fourteen was located near 17.7, -84.3 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 6
2020-08-21 22:42:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 212041 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 84.3W ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch from north of Cancun to Dzilam to a Tropical Storm Warning. The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Bay Islands of Honduras. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 84.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days, followed by an increase in speed by Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The system could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Additional strengthening is forecast Sunday and Monday as the system moves over the central Gulf of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon and will spread northward and westward within the warning area Saturday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by late Saturday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Eastern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches. Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 2 inches NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-08-21 22:42:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 212041 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 2100 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO DZILAM TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO DZILAM MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 84.3W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 84.3W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 84.1W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.6N 85.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.8N 85.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.2N 87.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.9N 88.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.6N 90.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.2N 92.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.5N 95.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 30.0N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 84.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 22/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-08-21 22:42:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 212041 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 Since this morning's advisory, the low-level swirl on which the Air Force reconnaissance plane made its last fix has apparently become the new center of circulation of the depression. A little bit of deep convection has developed over this new center during the past few hours, but on the whole there is very little convective activity in the central region of the circulation. The strongest and most persistent convection is located within a band that extends across the Cayman Islands toward western Cuba. An ASCAT pass from this morning showed winds of 25-30 kt to the northeast of the new center, so 30 kt remains the initial intensity on this advisory. It is a bit of a mystery why the depression has struggled to develop much central convection, given a seemingly low-shear environment and warm waters. Since these conditions are expected to continue for the next few days, intensification is still indicated in the official forecast, although the rate of strengthening has been muted a bit while the system approaches the Yucatan Peninsula given its current structure. After the center moves over the Gulf of Mexico, many of the models still show the cyclone reaching hurricane intensity in about 3 days, including the intensity consensus, and that possibility is still shown in the NHC forecast. By day 4, the cyclone is likely to be blasted by 30-40 kt of southwesterly shear, which would lead to weakening while it approaches the northwestern Gulf coast. The official forecast has been reduced at that time, although it's noteworthy to mention that it still lies above all the guidance on day 4. Now that there is more confidence in the initial position, the new motion estimate is a little to the right from before, but still toward the northwest, or 325/11 kt. A deep-layer trough over the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to be shoved aside by the Atlantic subtropical ridge building westward over the next 2 days. Even with this pattern change, the cyclone is expected to move generally northwestward for the entire 5-day forecast period. However, there has been a notable westward bend in some of the track models, (particularly the GFS and ECMWF) from days 3-5, which is likely due those models having a weaker cyclone steered more by the low-level ridge at that time. Since the NHC intensity forecast is mirroring this particular model trend, the track forecast has been shifted westward from the previous prediction on days 4 and 5 toward the GFS and ECMWF solutions. The track forecast is still of rather low confidence, with the spread among the model guidance being larger than normal at every forecast time period. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and it could still be near hurricane strength when it reaches the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for portions of that region. 2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Although some strengthening is anticipated Sunday and Monday, weakening is forecast as the system approaches the northwestern Gulf coast on Tuesday. It is still too soon to know exactly the location and magnitude of impacts the system will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast, and interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 17.7N 84.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 18.6N 85.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 19.8N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 21.2N 87.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1800Z 22.9N 88.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 24/0600Z 24.6N 90.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 26.2N 92.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 28.5N 95.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 30.0N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg
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