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Tropical Depression Fourteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-08-21 04:53:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 210253 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 4(20) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 10(36) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 15(39) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 16(29) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 15(27) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 16(19) 1(20) X(20) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 38(49) 9(58) X(58) X(58) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 6(22) 1(23) X(23) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BELIZE CITY 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) GUANAJA 34 X 18(18) 13(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) GUANAJA 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 3
2020-08-21 04:53:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 210253 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 ...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 82.2W ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM ESE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Herrero northward to Cancun, Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras * Bay Islands of Honduras * Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 82.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue through Friday morning. A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected by Friday afternoon and continuing through at least Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will move near or just offshore the coasts of northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, on Friday and approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the watch area by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coasts of northeastern Honduras and northern Nicaragua within the warning area later tonight and early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread westward along the coast of Honduras within the warning area during the day on Friday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Honduras: 2 to 4 inches. Jamaica and northern Nicaragua: 1 to 2 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-08-21 04:53:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 210253 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA HERRERO NORTHWARD TO CANCUN MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS * BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS * PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER * PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 82.2W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 82.2W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 81.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.5N 83.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.8N 85.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.2N 86.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.8N 87.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.4N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.2N 89.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 26.7N 92.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 29.1N 94.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 82.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 21/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Graphics
2020-08-21 01:46:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 23:46:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 22:05:59 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen (AT4/AL142020)
2020-08-21 01:45:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION SHOWING SIGNS OF GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY... As of 8:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 the center of Fourteen was located near 14.7, -81.7 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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