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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 4

2020-08-21 10:44:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 210844 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 Recent METOP-A/B ASCAT overpasses and earlier aircraft reconnaissance data indicate that the depression's circulation is not well-defined. In fact, the scatterometer data revealed multiple swirls, particularly, one newly developed circulation near a recent strong burst of deep convection near the coast of Honduras. Highest sustained winds from the scatterometer pass were 25-30 kt. For this advisory, the initial position is an uncertain centroid position of the multiple surface centers and the intensity is held at 30 kt. A 53rd Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight is scheduled for this morning and will hopefully paint a clearer picture on the depression's location. Deep convection has been increasing during the past few hours, especially in the north portion of the depression, so gradual strengthening is still expected before it makes landfall on the east side of the Yucatan Peninsula in about 48 hours. After that time, some weakening is forecast while the cyclone traverses the peninsula. The system is expected to enter the warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico around the 60 hr period and restrengthen through the remainder of the forecast. Global models, however, are indicating increasing south-southwesterly shear as the cyclone enters the northwest portion of the gulf which could prevent it from reaching hurricane strength prior to landfall. For now, the forecast will reflect a low-end hurricane making landfall, similar to the HCCA intensity model. The new intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is based on a compromise of the various multi-model consensus aids. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/10 kt. The depression is forecast to be steered generally northwestward during the next few days by a western extension of the atlantic subtropical ridge that stretches westward across Florida and into the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. This general motion should result in landfall over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, with the system entering the northwestern Gulf by the middle of next week. I think it's worth noting that both the UKMET and the DWD, Germany ICON global models are showing some binary interaction between the depression and Tropical Depression Thirteen around the 96-120 hr period while both systems are situated in the Gulf of Mexico. If this scenario actually occurs, the interaction could delay or slow tropical depression Fourteen's landfall over the northwestern Gulf coast. The NHC forecast track is again adjusted a little to the right of the previous forecast and lies close to the TVCA and HCCA consensus solutions. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and is likely to produce tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall over portions of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, through today. The system is expected be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday where a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect. 2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is anticipated while it moves northwestward over the western Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 15.4N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 16.3N 84.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 17.7N 85.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 19.2N 86.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 20.7N 87.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 23/1800Z 22.5N 88.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 24/0600Z 24.5N 90.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 28.1N 93.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 30.4N 94.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen (AT4/AL142020)

2020-08-21 10:43:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DEPRESSION APPROACHING THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER COAST... As of 5:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 the center of Fourteen was located near 15.4, -83.1 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 4

2020-08-21 10:43:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 210843 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 ...DEPRESSION APPROACHING THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 83.1W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras * Bay Islands of Honduras * Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 83.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue this morning. A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected by this afternoon and continuing through at least Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will move near or just offshore the coasts of northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, today and approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Some weakening is expected as it traverses the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night. Afterward, restrengthening is forecast on Sunday as it moves offshore and enters the southern Gulf of Mexico The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the watch area by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coasts of northeastern Honduras and northern Nicaragua within the warning area this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread westward along the coast of Honduras within the warning area today. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Eastern Honduras and the Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches. Northeast Nicaragua: 1 to 2 inches NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 4

2020-08-21 10:43:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 211 WTNT24 KNHC 210843 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0900 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS * BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS * PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER * PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 83.1W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 83.1W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 82.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.3N 84.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.7N 85.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.2N 86.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.7N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.5N 88.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.5N 90.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 28.1N 93.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 30.4N 94.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 83.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 21/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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