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Hurricane NEWTON Forecast Advisory Number 5
2016-09-05 23:06:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 052106 TCMEP5 HURRICANE NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 2100 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM WARNING SECTION CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES TO CABO SAN LAZARO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA AND FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LAZARO TO SAN EVARISTO...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES * NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS * NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO PUERTO LIBERTAD A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO SOUTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 108.1W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 80SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 150SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 108.0W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 107.6W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.9N 109.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.4N 110.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.3N 111.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.4N 111.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 108.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane NEWTON Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-09-05 22:59:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052059 TCDEP5 HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 300 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016 Satellite images indicate that Newton is continuing to strengthen. A ragged eye has formed on the latest visible pictures, with a more symmetric overall pattern in the eyewall. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have already found peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 74 kt, which supports making Newton a 65-kt hurricane at this time. Further strengthening is expected until landfall since Newton is in an environment of light shear and very warm water. The official NHC forecast continues to be above the intensity consensus in the short term with rapid intensification a distinct possibility. Note the intensity could peak a little higher than shown below since landfall is forecast in between the 12 and 24 hour forecast points. Weakening is anticipated by tomorrow afternoon due to interaction with the rough terrain of the Baja California peninsula but, given the fast motion, Newton is expected to remain at least a strong tropical storm until its final landfall in Sonora. Newton is moving quickly to the northwest or 325/14. Newton should gradually turn northward and northeastward over the next 48 hours as it moves around the western periphery of a ridge over the southern United States. The biggest change in the latest model cycle is that almost everything is faster and a bit to the left of the previous guidance. This makes sense because, with a stronger Newton, the strong southeasterly and southerly flow aloft would steer the deeper storm in that direction. The new NHC track prediction is adjusted to the north and west throughout the period. Newton is expected to be a large hurricane at landfall, and hazards are likely to affect a large portion of Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico. In addition, moisture associated with the remnants of Newton could cause heavy rains and localized flash flooding over parts of Arizona and New Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 20.3N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 21.9N 109.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 24.4N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/0600Z 27.3N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 30.4N 111.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane NEWTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2016-09-05 22:58:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 052058 PWSEP5 HURRICANE NEWTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 2100 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEWTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P ABREOJOS 34 X 6( 6) 11(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 55 44(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 10 77(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 1 58(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) SAN JOSE CABO 34 56 43(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 50 7 78(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X 49(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) LA PAZ 34 12 83(95) 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) LA PAZ 50 1 71(72) 3(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) LA PAZ 64 X 35(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) LORETO 34 4 27(31) 54(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) LORETO 50 X 3( 3) 43(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) LORETO 64 X X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HERMOSILLO 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) 26(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) HERMOSILLO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HERMOSILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BAHIA KINO 34 X 4( 4) 19(23) 24(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BAHIA KINO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X 8( 8) 41(49) 9(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 2 14(16) 22(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 6 28(34) 5(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) CULIACAN 34 8 10(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ISLAS MARIAS 34 61 X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) MAZATLAN 34 14 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SAN BLAS 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P VALLARTA 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 45 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) ISLA SOCORRO 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 115W 34 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm NEWTON Graphics
2016-09-05 19:49:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Sep 2016 17:49:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Sep 2016 15:06:48 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm NEWTON (EP5/EP152016)
2016-09-05 19:48:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEWTON STILL STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE AT LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 12:00 PM MDT Mon Sep 5 the center of NEWTON was located near 19.6, -107.6 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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