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Tropical Storm NEWTON Public Advisory Number 4A
2016-09-05 19:48:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 051748 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NEWTON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 1200 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016 ...NEWTON STILL STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE AT LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 107.6W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 235 MI...440 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Cortes to San Evaristo, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes * north of Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos * north of San Evaristo to Mulege * Bahia Tempehuaya to Bahia Kino A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * north of Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro * north of San Evaristo to Loreto A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * north of Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Mazatlan to south of Bahia Tempehuaya * north of Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 107.6 West. Newton is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Tuesday. A turn toward the north-northwest, and then to the north, is expected late Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Newton should be near or over the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday morning, and move over portions of the southern Baja California peninsula late Tuesday and Wednesday. Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely, and Newton is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center, primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: For the Baja California peninsula, hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area early Tuesday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area later on Tuesday. For the Mexican mainland, tropical storm conditions are occurring from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes today. Farther northward, tropical storm conditions are expected over northwestern Mexico beginning Tuesday morning, and these conditions will gradually spread northward throughout the day. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch areas in Sinaloa early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch in Sonora by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Newton is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches for coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, as well as much of the state of Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches through Tuesday night. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Rainfall amounts of up to 2 inches are expected across portions of southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico from late Wednesday into Thursday, with localized amounts of up to 3 inches possible. These rains could result in flash flooding. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Large swells generated by Newton are expected to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday, and begin to subside on Wednesday. Swells should increase across the southern and central portions of the Baja California peninsula today and Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm NEWTON Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-09-05 17:07:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 051507 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 900 AM MDT MON SEP 05 2016 Newton's cloud pattern is characterized by a large mass of very cold-topped convection, with the center located underneath this formative central dense overcast on the north side. A ship earlier reported 50 kt, and although the ship had somewhat of a high bias, the 12z sounding from Manzanillo reported an 850 mb wind of 65 kt. A typical wind reduction over the water would suggest about 50 kt at the surface, and since the sounding supports the ship observation, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt. The center location of Newton has been difficult to determine, and hence the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 330/11. Newton is currently being steered northwestward on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge over the United States Lower Mississippi Valley. The cyclone should be drawn north-northwestward and then northward in 36 to 48 hours between this feature and a trough of low pressure gradually lifting out over the western United States. The official NHC track forecast is somewhat faster and slightly to the left of the previous one and near the multi-model consensus. It lies on the western side of the guidance, but with only the ECMWF and UKMET models to the left. Newton is expected to remain in a very moist environment with generally light northeasterly shear during the next 24 hours. These factors, along with the cyclone's passage over sea surface temperatures above 29 deg C, should allow for steady intensification until the center reaches the coast. The only obvious obstacle to strengthening is Newton's broad structure, but indications are that the cyclone may be in the process of consolidating. It should be noted that the SHIPS RI Index indicates a 60-70 percent chance of an intensity increase of around 25 kt during the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast now calls for Newton to become a hurricane prior to landfall, which is a little above the multi-model consensus. Weakening is likely when Newton moves across the Baja California peninsula, but little change in strength is expected as southwesterly shear begins to increase over the Gulf of California in 36 to 48 hours. Newton is expected to be a large hurricane at landfall, and hazards are likely to affect a large portion of Baja California and northwestern Mexico. In addition, moisture associated with the remnants of Newton could cause heavy rains and localized flash flooding over parts of Arizona and New Mexico. Based on the new intensity and track forecasts, the government of Mexico has made a variety of changes to the watches and warnings. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 19.1N 107.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 20.6N 108.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 22.8N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 25.3N 111.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 28.1N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/1200Z 33.5N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm NEWTON Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-09-05 16:59:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 051459 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 900 AM MDT MON SEP 05 2016 NEWTON'S CLOUD PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE MASS OF VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH THE CENTER LOCATED UNDERNEATH THIS FORMATIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST ON THE NORTH SIDE. A SHIP EARLIER REPORTED 50 KT, AND ALTHOUGH THIS SHIP HAD SOMEWHAT OF A HIGH BIAS, THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM MANZANILLO REPORTED AN 850 MB WIND OF 65 KT. A TYPICAL WIND REDUCTION OVER THE WATER WOULD SUGGEST ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE, AND SINCE THE SOUNDING SUPPORTS THE SHIP OBSERVATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT. THE CENTER LOCATION OF NEWTON HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE, AND HENCE THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 330/11. NEWTON IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UNITED STATES LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE DRAWN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD IN 36 TO 48 HOURS BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IT LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE, BUT WITH ONLY THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS TO LEFT. NEWTON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH THE CYCLONE'S PASSAGE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 29 DEG C, SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. THE ONLY OBVIOUS OBSTACLE TO STRENGTHENING IS NEWTON'S BROAD STRUCTURE, BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF CONSOLIDATING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS RI INDEX INDICATES A 60-70 CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF AROUND 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR NEWTON TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WHICH IS LITTLE ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. WEAKENING IS LIKELY WHEN NEWTON MOVES ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. NEWTON IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE HURRICANE AT LANDFALL, AND HAZARDS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. IN ADDITION, MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF NEWTON COULD CAUSE HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OVER PARTS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. BASED ON THE NEW INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS, THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS MADE A VARIETY OF CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 19.1N 107.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 20.6N 108.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 22.8N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 25.3N 111.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 28.1N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/1200Z 33.5N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Tropical Storm NEWTON (EP5/EP152016)
2016-09-05 16:43:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEWTON STRENGTHENING... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Sep 5 the center of NEWTON was located near 19.1, -107.0 with movement NNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm NEWTON Public Advisory Number 4
2016-09-05 16:43:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 051442 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NEWTON ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 900 AM MDT MON SEP 05 2016 ...NEWTON STRENGTHENING... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 107.0W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Puerto Cortes to north of Santa Fe on the west coast of Baja California Sur and from north of La Paz to San Evaristo on the east coast. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from north of San Evaristo to Loreto on the east coast of Baja California Sur. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued on the west coast of Baja California Sur from north of Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos and on the east coast from north of San Evaristo to Mulege. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coast of the Baja Peninsula from north of Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista. For mainland Mexico, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Bahia Tempehuaya to Bahia Kino and a Tropical Storm Watch from north of Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Cortes to San Evaristo, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes * north of Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos * north of San Evaristo to Mulege * Bahia Tempehuaya to Bahia Kino A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * north of Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro * north of San Evaristo to Loreto A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * north of Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Mazatlan to south of Bahia Tempehuaya * north of Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 107.0 West. Newton is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a turn toward the northwest is likely by later today. A turn toward the north-northwest, and then to the north, is expected late Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Newton should be near or over the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday morning, and move over portions of the southern Baja California peninsula late Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely, and Newton is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center, primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: For the Baja California peninsula, hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area early Tuesday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area later on Tuesday. For the Mexican mainland, tropical storm conditions are occurring from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes today. Farther northward, tropical storm conditions are expected over northwestern Mexico beginning Tuesday morning, and these conditions will gradually spread northward throughout the day. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch areas in Sinaloa early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch in Sonora by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Newton is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches for coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, as well as much of the state of Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches through Tuesday night. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Rainfall amounts of up to 2 inches are expected across potions of southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico from late Wednesday into Thursday, with localized amounts of up to 3 inches possible. These rains could result in flash flooding. SURF: Large swells generated by Newton are expected to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday, and begin to subside on Wednesday. Swells should increase across the southern and central portions of the Baja California peninsula today and Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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