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Tropical Storm NEWTON Public Advisory Number 2A
2016-09-05 07:54:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 050554 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NEWTON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 100 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2016 ...NEWTON HEADED TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 106.0W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * La Paz to Santa Fe, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * north of La Paz to San Evaristo * north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * north of San Evaristo to Loreto * north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito * Mazatlan to Huatabampito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 106.0 West. Newton is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwestward or north-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected later today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Newton will be near or over the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours or so, and Newton could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the extreme southern Baja California peninsula Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area by Tuesday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area along the southwestern coast of Mexico by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch areas on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Newton is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches for coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, as well as the state of Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches through Tuesday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Newton are expected to increase near the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm NEWTON Graphics
2016-09-05 05:17:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Sep 2016 02:54:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Sep 2016 03:07:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm NEWTON Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-09-05 04:53:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 050253 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2016 A pair of ASCAT passes late this afternoon indicated that the depression was producing 30-35 kt winds on its southern side. Since the last advisory, the circulation and convective pattern have continued to improve, and both subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have increased. Based on all these data, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Newton with maximum winds of 35 kt. There might be multiple low-level swirls rotating around a common center, but the best estimate of the center yields an initial motion of 340/7 kt. Newton is located to the south of a mid-tropospheric ridge which extends from Texas southwestward over the Pacific. However, an amplifying trough near California is expected to shunt the ridge eastward within the next 24 hours, which will help to accelerate Newton toward the northwest or north-northwest during the next couple of days. There is very little spread among the track guidance, but most of the models (with the exception of the EMCWF) are now a little faster than the previous NHC forecast. The new NHC forecast is therefore a little faster, bringing the center of Newton very close to the extreme southern Baja California peninsula in about 36 hours. After that, Newton is forecast to turn northward, moving over the Baja California peninsula, the Gulf of California, and into northwestern mainland Mexico by day 3. Newton is over very deep, warm water at the moment, and SSTs are expected to be between 28-30C until the cyclone reaches the Baja California peninsula. In addition, vertical shear is expected to remain low for the next couple of days. Therefore, Newton is expected to strengthen before it reaches land, with rapid intensification not out of the question. The Rapid Intensification Index currently shows a 1-in-4 chance of a 30-kt increase in winds during the next 24 hours. Most of the hurricane models, both dynamical and statistical, are only showing modest strengthening, but the global model fields indicate that Newton could be near hurricane intensity when it is near the Baja California peninsula. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast now brings Newton to just below hurricane intensity in 36 hours, which is at the high end of the guidance. Weakening should occur after 36 hours due to interaction with land and increasing vertical shear. Although the official forecast does not explicitly show Newton becoming a hurricane, it will be close enough to hurricane strength that the Government of Mexico has issued a hurricane warning for the extreme southern Baja California peninsula. Additional tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued since Newton's wind field is expected to expand. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 17.0N 105.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 18.4N 106.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 20.2N 108.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 22.3N 109.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 24.7N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER BAJA PENINSULA 72H 08/0000Z 29.9N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/0000Z 34.5N 109.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm NEWTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2016-09-05 04:53:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 050253 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM NEWTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 0300 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEWTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) X(17) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 4( 4) 59(63) 20(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 21(21) 21(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 4( 4) 56(60) 21(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 18(18) 22(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 49(71) 4(75) X(75) X(75) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LORETO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 33(60) X(60) X(60) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 3(35) X(35) HERMOSILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HERMOSILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 2(39) X(39) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) BAHIA KINO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 41(46) 1(47) X(47) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 24(36) 1(37) X(37) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HUATABAMPO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 9(31) X(31) X(31) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 16(17) 5(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MAZATLAN 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) SAN BLAS 34 1 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) P VALLARTA 34 1 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 3 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 X 19(19) 18(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 20N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm NEWTON (EP5/EP152016)
2016-09-05 04:52:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM NEWTON... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 the center of NEWTON was located near 17.0, -105.7 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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