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Tropical Depression Ramon Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-10-05 04:48:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050248 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Ramon Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 Mexican radar data, ship observations, and last-light visible imagery indicate that the original low-level center of Ramon has dissipated. Earlier ASCAT data indicated the formation of a new center under convection well to the west, and this has probably become the primary center, if one still exists. As a result, the initial position of Ramon has been adjusted significantly to the west. Whatever remains of Ramon will likely be steered generally westward by a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. Since most of the track guidance no longer depicts a trackable low-level center, the new NHC track forecast follows the trend of the previous advisory, in an effort to maintain some continuity. Therefore, the forecast shows a continued westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed until the cyclone dissipates, in 24 hours or less. Dvorak classifications have decreased and Ramon is now estimated to be a 30 kt tropical depression. All of the dynamical models forecast that Ramon will dissipate quickly, and in fact the most recent runs of the ECMWF and UKMET suggest that only a trough should exist now. There is some indication from the GFS and the GFS-based hurricane models that the mid-level remnants of Ramon could interact with a disturbance to the west in a day or two and regenerate, or contribute to the development of a new tropical cyclone. However, this is not supported by any of the other global models, and 30 kt or more of shear should prohibit significant redevelopment. Even if Ramon dissipates later tonight or tomorrow, locally heavy rainfall is still expected along the immediate coast of southern Mexico through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 14.8N 101.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 14.8N 104.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ramon (EP4/EP192017)
2017-10-05 04:46:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POORLY ORGANIZED RAMON WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 the center of Ramon was located near 14.8, -101.9 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Storm Ramon Graphics
2017-10-05 01:54:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2017 23:54:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2017 21:32:56 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ramon (EP4/EP192017)
2017-10-05 01:53:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RAMON BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 7:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 the center of Ramon was located near 15.1, -99.0 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Ramon Public Advisory Number 3A
2017-10-05 01:53:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 042353 CCA TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ramon Intermediate Advisory Number 3A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017 700 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 Corrected summary block formatting ...RAMON BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 99.0W ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM SSW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Angel to Acapulco A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ramon was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 99.0 West. Ramon is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a general westward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Ramon is expected to move parallel to, but remain offshore of, the coast of southern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Ramon is losing organization, and weakening is forecast to continue during the next day or two. The cyclone is expected to dissipate by Friday or sooner. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Ramon is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches over the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and southern Michoacan through Thursday, with heaviest amounts occurring near the coast. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area through this evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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