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Hurricane Delta Graphics
2020-10-08 04:49:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Oct 2020 02:49:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Oct 2020 03:24:57 GMT
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Hurricane Delta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-10-08 04:48:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 080247 PWSAT1 HURRICANE DELTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0300 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 10(30) X(30) X(30) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 10(40) X(40) X(40) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 22(28) 8(36) X(36) X(36) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 8(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 19(43) X(43) X(43) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 40(46) 11(57) X(57) X(57) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 3 10(13) 36(49) 15(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 57(64) 12(76) X(76) X(76) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 28(28) 10(38) X(38) X(38) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 56(69) 8(77) X(77) X(77) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 7(34) X(34) X(34) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 54(59) 17(76) X(76) X(76) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 27(27) 11(38) 1(39) X(39) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 64(77) 10(87) X(87) X(87) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) 12(59) X(59) X(59) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 28(28) 8(36) X(36) X(36) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 63(78) 9(87) X(87) X(87) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 45(47) 11(58) X(58) X(58) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 7(34) X(34) X(34) GFMX 280N 930W 34 3 26(29) 63(92) 6(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 3( 3) 58(61) 22(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) 40(40) 24(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 7(27) X(27) X(27) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 53(60) 11(71) 1(72) X(72) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 26(26) 8(34) X(34) X(34) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 63(79) 6(85) X(85) X(85) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 42(44) 9(53) X(53) X(53) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 5(31) X(31) X(31) CAMERON LA 34 X 6( 6) 39(45) 45(90) 2(92) X(92) X(92) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 51(60) 4(64) X(64) X(64) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 4(42) X(42) X(42) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 41(48) 9(57) 1(58) X(58) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 42(52) 6(58) X(58) X(58) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 3( 3) 15(18) 47(65) 6(71) X(71) X(71) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 4(33) 1(34) X(34) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) GALVESTON TX 34 X 7( 7) 34(41) 22(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HOUSTON TX 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 18(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X 4( 4) 13(17) 13(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 2 14(16) 50(66) 7(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 2( 2) 17(19) 6(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 4( 4) 20(24) 35(59) 4(63) X(63) X(63) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MATAGORDA TX 34 X 7( 7) 17(24) 6(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 7( 7) 10(17) 4(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKPORT TX 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 270N 960W 34 2 13(15) 17(32) 2(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MCALLEN TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 250N 960W 34 3 13(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PESCA MX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 6(28) X(28) X(28) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-10-08 04:46:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 080245 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0300 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SABINE PASS TO OCEAN SPRINGS...MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM EAST OF SABINE PASS TO MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM SAN LUIS PASS...TEXAS TO SABINE PASS...AND EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM RIO LAGARTOS TO DZILAM...MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO OCEAN SPRINGS...MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE... AND MOBILE BAY A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND...TX TO SABINE PASS * EAST OF OCEAN SPRINGS...MISSISSIPPI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF SABINE PASS TO MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS...TEXAS TO SABINE PASS * EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 90.9W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 80SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 90.9W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 90.2W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.7N 92.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.4N 93.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 27.5N 93.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.0N 92.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.4N 91.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.2N 89.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 37.5N 85.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 90.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 08/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
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Summary for Hurricane Delta (AT1/AL262020)
2020-10-08 01:59:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY... As of 7:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 the center of Delta was located near 22.3, -90.2 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 13A
2020-10-08 01:59:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 072359 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 700 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 ...DELTA STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 90.2W ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM SSE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning from Rio Lagartos to Dzilam, Mexico to a Tropical Storm Warning, and discontinued all warnings for the remainder of the Yucatan Peninsula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * High Island Texas to the Alabama/Florida border including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * San Luis Pass to west of High Island Texas * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Bay St. Louis Mississippi, including New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 90.2 West. Delta is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northwestward motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. A north-northwestward motion is expected by late Thursday, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the southern and central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast within the hurricane watch area on Friday. Delta is forecast to move inland within the hurricane watch area by late Friday or Friday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast while the hurricane moves over the southern and central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again. Some weakening is forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). During the past few hours, a Mexican weather station on Isla Perez, off the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, measured a sustained wind of 65 mph (105 km/h) and a gust to 90 mph (145 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Pecan Island, LA to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft Cameron, LA to Pecan Island, LA...4-7 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Ocean Springs, MS to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft High Island, TX to Cameron, LA including Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft Sabine Lake...1-3 ft Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas along the Gulf coast by late Thursday night or early Friday with hurricane conditions possible within the hurricane watch area by Friday. RAINFALL: Through early Thursday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding. Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. TORNADOES: The risk of a few tornadoes will increase late Thursday night into Friday over portions of southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southwest Alabama. SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the northern and western Gulf coast on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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