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Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 11

2020-10-07 10:56:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 070856 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 ...WEATHER QUICKLY DETERIORATING OVER THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN COAST WITH LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS ARRIVING SOON... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 86.4W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Isle of Youth. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio * Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico * Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located by satellite images and Cuban radar data near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 86.4 West. Delta is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next day or so. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is likely Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula during the next few hours. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before the center reaches the coast of the Yucatan peninsula during the next few hours. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday, and Delta could become a category 4 hurricane again by late Thursday. Weakening is expected as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels in areas of onshore winds by as much as 8 to 12 ft above normal tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 8 ft above normal tide levels along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, extremely dangerous hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the warning area during the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions already occuring. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area to continue for the next several hours. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected during the next few hours. RAINFALL: Through early Thursday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding. In addition, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts, are expected across portions of western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will eventually spread into the Tennessee Valley, and interior southeastern United States this weekend into early next week. SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affect land areas around the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 11

2020-10-07 10:56:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 070856 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO * COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO * PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM MEXICO * DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DELTA. HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 86.4W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 120SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 86.4W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 85.7W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.9N 88.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.3N 90.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.9N 92.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.7N 92.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.2N 92.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 32.0N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 35.5N 87.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 38.5N 82.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 86.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 07/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Hurricane Delta (AT1/AL262020)

2020-10-07 07:52:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HURRICANE DELTA AIMING FOR THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN COAST WITH A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS... As of 1:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 the center of Delta was located near 20.0, -85.7 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

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Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 10A

2020-10-07 07:52:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 070552 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 ...HURRICANE DELTA AIMING FOR THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN COAST WITH A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 85.7W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio * Isle of Youth * Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico * Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 85.7 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next day or so. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before the center reaches the coast of the Yucatan peninsula. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). NOAA buoy 42056 recently measured a sustained wind of 82 mph (132 km/h) and a gust to 94 mph (151 km/h), and a minimum central pressure of 976 mb (28.82 inches). The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 972 mb (28.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels in areas of onshore winds by as much as 8 to 12 ft above normal tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 8 ft above normal tide levels along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, extremely dangerous hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the warning area during the next several hours, with tropical storm conditions beginning in the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area overnight. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected overnight in the warning area. RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding. Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Later this week, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches, over portions of the central Gulf Coast. These rainfall amounts may lead to flash, urban and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will eventually spread into the Tennessee Valley, and interior southeastern United States as well. SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affect land areas around the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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