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Summary for Hurricane Delta (AT1/AL262020)
2020-10-07 12:54:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DELTA BRINGING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS TO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 7:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 the center of Delta was located near 21.1, -87.4 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Hurricane Delta Graphics
2020-10-07 11:00:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Oct 2020 09:00:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Oct 2020 09:00:48 GMT
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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-10-07 10:59:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 070859 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 Satellite images show very deep convection associated with Delta, with extremely cold cloud-top temperatures to -97C noted southwest of the center overnight. However, this structure has not resulted in a stronger cyclone, and the full NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission actually indicated that Delta has significantly weakened since earlier today. The maximum flight-level winds were 98 kt, with SFMR values near 90 kt. Early in the mission, the flight director indicated that the eyewall had dissipated, but on the last fix, she noted that the eyewall had re-formed. Recent Cuban radar data also indicate that at least a partial eyewall is present, so the initial wind speed is generously kept at 100 kt. Delta should begin to re-intensify late today as it moves into an area of fairly warm and deep waters, with fairly light shear. The regional hurricane models all show Delta attaining category 4 status in 36-48 hours, and so does the NHC forecast. As Delta approaches the Louisiana coast, lower oceanic heat content and an increase in shear is likely to cause some weakening before landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one, and leans on the stronger regional hurricane models. I should also note that all of the guidance show Delta becoming considerably larger than it is now by the time it reaches the northern Gulf coast, so even if weakening occurs there, the hurricane will likely bring a sizable area of hazardous conditions to the coast. Fixes from the aircraft and Cuban radar data indicate the storm is moving faster to the northwest or 305/15 kt. Delta should make landfall during the next few hours between Cozumel and Cancun, and move quickly across northeastern Yucatan before emerging in the southern Gulf of Mexico early this afternoon. The hurricane is then expected to move to the northwest or west-northwest around the southwestern and western portion of the subtropical ridge for about the next 36 hours. Thereafter, Delta will likely turn northward by early Friday between the ridge and a mid-level trough over Texas. While there is broad agreement on the synoptic pattern, subtle differences in the subtropical ridge and the depth of the cyclone are causing some challenges. The ECMWF and its ensembles, for instance, are showing a stronger ridge and a weaker storm, which results in a slower track toward southwestern Louisiana. The GFS and UKMET, on the other hand, are showing a deeper cyclone, which would feel stronger upper-level winds, and move Delta faster to the coast. Given the expectation of a powerful cyclone at landfall, the NHC forecast is shaded toward the latter two models, which results in a slightly faster and westward-shifted forecast from before, not too different from the model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few hours. Now is the time to be in your storm shelter. 2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through early Thursday. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with minor river flooding is likely Friday through Saturday across portions of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. The heavy rainfall will spread northeastward into the Tennessee Valley and interior southeastern United States this weekend into early next week. 3. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice given by local officials. Storm surge and hurricane watches will likely be issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 20.6N 86.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 21.9N 88.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 23.3N 90.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 24.9N 92.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 26.7N 92.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 29.2N 92.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 32.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/0600Z 35.5N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0600Z 38.5N 82.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Hurricane Delta (AT1/AL262020)
2020-10-07 10:56:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...WEATHER QUICKLY DETERIORATING OVER THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN COAST WITH LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS ARRIVING SOON... As of 4:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 the center of Delta was located near 20.6, -86.4 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
Hurricane Delta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-10-07 10:56:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 070856 PWSAT1 HURRICANE DELTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) 1(16) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 3(30) X(30) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) 2(43) X(43) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 46(49) 2(51) X(51) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 43(48) 2(50) X(50) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 21(35) X(35) X(35) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 6(47) 1(48) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 58(63) 2(65) X(65) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 1(30) X(30) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 43(54) 27(81) X(81) X(81) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 27(40) 1(41) X(41) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) X(19) X(19) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 68(73) 3(76) X(76) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 1(43) 1(44) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) X(24) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 68(77) 1(78) 1(79) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) 1(46) X(46) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 1(26) X(26) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 50(53) 4(57) X(57) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 1(26) 1(27) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 68(76) 1(77) 1(78) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) 1(48) 1(49) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 1(28) X(28) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 69(78) 2(80) X(80) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 50(51) 1(52) X(52) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) X(29) 1(30) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 59(72) 23(95) X(95) X(95) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 36(75) 1(76) X(76) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 32(51) X(51) X(51) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) X(18) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 43(47) 3(50) X(50) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 2(22) X(22) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 52(61) 2(63) X(63) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 1(35) X(35) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 50(73) 1(74) X(74) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 38(43) 1(44) X(44) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 1(24) X(24) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) 2(38) X(38) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) 1(13) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 31(37) 2(39) X(39) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 38(47) 2(49) X(49) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 1(21) X(21) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 27(46) 1(47) X(47) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15(20) 1(21) X(21) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 14(21) 1(22) X(22) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 30(36) 16(52) 1(53) X(53) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 30(41) 1(42) X(42) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) X(15) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 11(22) 1(23) X(23) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 8(17) X(17) X(17) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 6(26) X(26) X(26) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) MERIDA MX 34 36 20(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) COZUMEL MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COZUMEL MX 50 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) COZUMEL MX 64 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 2(20) X(20) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 36(39) 2(41) X(41) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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