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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-10-03 04:46:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030246 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 Victor remains a tropical cyclone this evening, with pulsing deep convection occuring primarily north of the well-defined low-level center. However, this convection lacks much organization and is continually being stripped away by around 20 kt of south-southwesterly vertical wind shear. Earlier this evening, there was an ASCAT-A pass valid at 2238 UTC which had peak wind retrievals of 25-30 kt to the northeast of the center. There was also a nearby moored ocean buoy that at 0000 UTC reported sustained winds of 28 kt with a pressure of 1006.7 mb also just northeast of Victor. The latest advisory intensity is thus being maintained at 30 kt but the minimum pressure was lowered a bit due to this in-situ buoy data. The 30 kt intensity also agrees with most recent TAFB Dvorak CI estimate from 0000 UTC. Ultimately the combination of southwesterly vertical wind shear and the associated entrainment of dry air will prove victorious against Victor, with the depression forecast to gradually weaken during the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast still shows Victor becoming a remnant low by tomorrow evening, though 27 to 28 C sea surface temperatures could still support sheared convective bursts to the north of the low center into early next week. Victor's low-level wind field will also continue to spin down over the subsequent days, and the circulation is forecast to open up into a trough by Tuesday. The latest forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one and is in good agreement with the consensus aids and deterministic model output. The depression continues to move to the northwest at 310/12 kt though with the occasional tug poleward by the convection on its northern side. This northwestward motion is expected to continue as Victor remains embedded in the flow around a low-level subtropical anticyclone to its northeast. The NHC track forecast continues to be in general agreement with the track guidance consensus, maintaining Victor on a similar forward motion until the system opens up into a trough in 2-3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 14.8N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 16.3N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 18.4N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1200Z 20.3N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z 21.8N 46.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1200Z 23.2N 48.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Victor Graphics
2021-10-03 04:46:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Oct 2021 02:46:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Oct 2021 02:46:15 GMT
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Tropical Depression Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-10-03 04:44:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 030244 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0300 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Victor (AT5/AL202021)
2021-10-03 04:44:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICTOR STILL A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Oct 2 the center of Victor was located near 14.8, -38.9 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Victor Public Advisory Number 15
2021-10-03 04:44:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 030244 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Victor Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 ...VICTOR STILL A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 38.9W ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Victor was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 38.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Victor could become a remnant low during that time. The system is then forecast to dissipate by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). NOAA moored ocean buoy 13008 recently reported a sea level pressure of 1006.7 mb (29.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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