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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-10-03 04:40:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 030240 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0300 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 38.9W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 30SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 38.9W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 38.4W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.3N 40.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.4N 42.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.3N 44.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.8N 46.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 23.2N 48.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 38.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-10-02 22:40:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 022039 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 Victor was about out of time as a tropical cyclone, but a recent burst of deep convection about 60 n mi northeast of its center saved it from being declared a remnant low this afternoon. The cyclone continues to struggle with dry air and strong southwesterly shear. Scatterometer overpasses missed Victor today, so the initial advisory intensity of 30 kt is based on the latest CI-value from the TAFB Dvorak estimate. The depression is moving northwest, or 310/12 kt in the flow to the southwest of a subtropical ridge. This general motion is forecast to continue until Victor dissipates in a few days. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the various multimodel track consensus solutions. Victor refused to succumb to the strong shear and dry air over the past 24 h. However, these hostile conditions are not forecast to abate over the cyclone for the foreseeable future. Therefore, the depression should struggle to maintain persistent deep convection, and the cyclone could degenerate to a remnant low at any time over the next couple of days. The global model guidance is in good agreement that Victor should gradually weaken early this week, and open into a tough of low pressure by Tuesday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, except for the timing of the system becoming a remnant low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 13.7N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 14.9N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 16.8N 41.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0600Z 18.9N 43.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 20.7N 45.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z 22.5N 47.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Victor Graphics
2021-10-02 22:37:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Oct 2021 20:37:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Oct 2021 21:28:56 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Victor (AT5/AL202021)
2021-10-02 22:36:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICTOR STILL HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Oct 2 the center of Victor was located near 13.7, -38.0 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Victor Public Advisory Number 14
2021-10-02 22:36:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 022036 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Victor Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 ...VICTOR STILL HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 38.0W ABOUT 950 MI...1525 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Victor was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 38.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Victor could become a remnant low during that time. The system is then forecast to dissipate by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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