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Tropical Depression Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2021-10-02 22:36:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 022036 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 2100 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-10-02 22:35:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 022035 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 2100 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 38.0W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 30SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 38.0W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 37.5W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.9N 39.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.8N 41.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.9N 43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.7N 45.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.5N 47.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 38.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Victor Graphics
2021-10-02 16:49:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Oct 2021 14:49:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Oct 2021 14:49:36 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Victor (AT5/AL202021)
2021-10-02 16:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICTOR BARELY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Oct 2 the center of Victor was located near 13.1, -37.2 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Victor Public Advisory Number 13
2021-10-02 16:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 021447 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 ...VICTOR BARELY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 37.2W ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 37.2 West. Victor is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Victor could become a remnant low by tonight. The system is then forecast to dissipate by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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