je.st
news
Tag: amanda
Hurricane AMANDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2014-05-24 22:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT MAY 24 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 242032 PWSEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 2100 UTC SAT MAY 24 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) 1(18) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) CLIPPERTON IS 34 4 4( 8) 4(12) 3(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
speed
wind
amanda
Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Advisory Number 9
2014-05-24 22:32:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT MAY 24 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 242032 TCMEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 2100 UTC SAT MAY 24 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 110.3W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 110.3W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 110.1W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.5N 110.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.0N 111.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 12.6N 111.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.5N 111.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 16.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 16.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 110.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
amanda
Hurricane AMANDA Graphics
2014-05-24 17:07:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 May 2014 14:38:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 May 2014 15:03:48 GMT
Tags: graphics
amanda
hurricane
hurricane graphics
Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-05-24 16:37:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 241437 TCDEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014 An eye has been observed sporadically in infrared satellite imagery during the past few hours, and recent microwave data has also revealed a small pinhole eye in the 85-GHz channel and a 12-15 n mi eye in TRMM radar data. Satellite classifications are still rising, and Amanda is being initialized as a 65-kt hurricane based on Dvorak estimates of T4.0 from SAB and the UW-CIMSS ADT. Amanda is intensifying rapidly, strengthening by 35 kt over the past 24 hours. Amanda is located over very warm water and in an environment of light vertical wind shear, and all indications are that this period of rapid intensification is likely to continue. The operational SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index (RII) is indicating a 60 percent chance of a 40-kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours, which is almost 15 times higher than normal. An experimental Joint Hurricane Testbed version of the RII product, which includes additional environmental variables, is showing even higher chances of rapid intensification. Based on this guidance, Amanda is forecast to continue strengthening rapidly, potentially reaching the threshold for major hurricane in about 24-36 hours. After 48 hours, southerly vertical shear is expected to increase, which is likely to cause Amanda's low- and mid-level circulations to decouple. Therefore, fast weakening is indicated toward the end of the forecast period. The updated NHC forecast is higher than the previous one during the first 48 hours to account for the high likelihood of continued rapid intensification, but it is largely unchanged thereafter. Amanda continues on its slow west-northwestward trek, and the initial motion is estimated to be 290/4 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over Mexico should begin weakening soon, which will cause the hurricane's forward motion to slow even further during the next 24 hours. In about 2 days, the mid-level ridge is forecast to restrengthen over the western Gulf of Mexico while a mid-level trough amplifies near 130W. This pattern change should push Amanda northward between days 3 and 5, but the speed is still likely to be fairly slow. The GFS and ECMWF models are located on the right side of the guidance envelope on this forecast cycle, and the NHC forecast has therefore been shifted a bit to the right as well, especially beyond 36 hours. This track is also to the right of the model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 11.4N 109.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 11.6N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 11.9N 110.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 12.4N 111.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 13.1N 111.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 15.0N 111.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
amanda
Hurricane AMANDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2014-05-24 16:37:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT MAY 24 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 241437 PWSEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 1500 UTC SAT MAY 24 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) 3(22) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) CLIPPERTON IS 34 11 7(18) 5(23) 3(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) CLIPPERTON IS 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
speed
wind
amanda
Sites : [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] next »