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Hurricane AMANDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2014-05-26 10:32:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON MAY 26 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 260832 PWSEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 0900 UTC MON MAY 26 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 3(18) 1(19) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 6(12) 4(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Advisory Number 15
2014-05-26 10:31:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON MAY 26 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 260831 TCMEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 0900 UTC MON MAY 26 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 111.6W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 250SW 250NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 111.6W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.8N 111.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.8N 112.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.7N 112.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.3N 112.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.9N 112.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 17.3N 112.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 17.8N 111.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 111.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane AMANDA Graphics
2014-05-26 05:07:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 May 2014 02:38:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 May 2014 03:03:43 GMT
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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 14
2014-05-26 04:40:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 260240 TCDEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014 Since Amanda peaked in intensity earlier today, there has been some erosion of deep convection in the southwestern quadrant of the cyclone, likely due to onset of moderate south-southwesterly wind shear. A pronounced dry slot is also noted wrapping around the southern half of the circulation in geostationary and microwave imagery. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased slightly, and the initial intensity is set to 125 kt, based on blend of Final-T and CI numbers. The initial motion is 335/03. The cyclone is located between a mid-level ridge to the east-northeast and a mid-/upper-level trough to the west. A weak deep-layer south-southeasterly to southerly flow between these two features should steer Amanda north- northwestward and then northward during the next few days. A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast in about 72 hours when the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough approaches the cyclone. After that time, a much weaker Amanda should stall or begin to drift westward or southwestward as a shallow feature in the trade wind flow. The model guidance this cycle has shifted westward again, and the official forecast is adjusted in that direction. It lies on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, nearly midway between the previous forecast and the multi-model consensus TVCE through 72 hours and south of the previous forecast late in the period. Moderate to strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, combined with gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, should cause Amanda to quickly weaken during the next few days. In about 3 days, the model guidance shows the low- and mid-level circulations of Amanda decoupling as the cyclone interacts with the trough to its west. The entrainment of substantially drier and more stable air should then cause whatever remains of Amanda to degenerate into a remnant low by day 5. The official forecast is slightly lower than the previous one in the short term and close to the multi-model consensus ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 12.6N 111.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 13.0N 111.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 14.0N 111.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 15.0N 112.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 15.9N 112.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 16.6N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 17.4N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 31/0000Z 18.0N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Hurricane AMANDA (EP1/EP012014)
2014-05-26 04:37:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...AMANDA MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY ON MONDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun May 25 the center of AMANDA was located near 12.6, -111.4 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 941 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
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