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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Advisory Number 10

2014-05-25 04:38:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN MAY 25 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 250238 TCMEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 0300 UTC SUN MAY 25 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 110.7W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 110.7W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.8N 111.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 12.3N 111.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.9N 111.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.8N 111.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.0N 111.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 16.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 17.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 110.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Hurricane AMANDA Graphics

2014-05-24 23:07:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 May 2014 20:34:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 May 2014 21:03:48 GMT

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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 9

2014-05-24 22:33:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 242033 TCDEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014 Amanda's eye is becoming more apparent in visible imagery. The hurricane has a fairly small central dense overcast with one prominent convective band curving around the western and northern side of the circulation. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T4.0/65 kt, and the objective ADT has been steady around 70 kt for the past few hours. The initial intensity is raised to 70 kt based on the ADT estimate and the development of an eye in visible imagery. Amanda likely has another 36 hours or so of favorable conditions for intensification before southerly vertical wind shear begins to increase. The rate of intensification may have slowed down just a bit, but there's no real good reason not to expect further strengthening in the short term. One potential limiting factor could be upwelling of colder ocean water due to the slow movement of the hurricane during the next few days. The intensity guidance has backed off a bit on this cycle, with many of the models peaking the maximum winds just below major hurricane strength. Only the Florida State Superensemble explicitly shows Amanda becoming a major hurricane in 24-36 hours. Nonetheless, Amanda is forecast to be right around the major hurricane threshold of 100 kt in a day or so. After 36 hours, higher vertical shear should induce a fairly fast weakening trend, and the NHC forecast now shows Amanda becoming a tropical depression by day 5. Amanda's motion remains 290/4 kt. The hurricane should begin turning northwestward within 24 hours and then northward by 36 hours as the mid-level ridge over Mexico weakens. A slightly faster motion may develop in about 48 hours due to a restrengthening of the mid-level ridge over Mexico and an amplification of a mid-level low near 130W. The NHC forecast has again been shifted a bit to the right toward the tracks of the GFS and ECMWF, both of which lie along the eastern edge of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 11.4N 110.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 11.5N 110.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 12.0N 111.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 12.6N 111.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 13.5N 111.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 15.0N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 16.0N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 16.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Summary for Hurricane AMANDA (EP1/EP012014)

2014-05-24 22:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...AMANDA A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat May 24 the center of AMANDA was located near 11.4, -110.3 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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Hurricane AMANDA Public Advisory Number 9

2014-05-24 22:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 242032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014 ...AMANDA A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.4N 110.3W ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST. AMANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND AMANDA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG

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