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Summary for Hurricane Iota (AT1/AL312020)
2020-11-15 16:05:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IOTA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 10:00 AM EST Sun Nov 15 the center of Iota was located near 13.3, -78.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Iota Public Advisory Number 9
2020-11-15 16:05:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 151501 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 9...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 Corrected the reference to the storm name in the wind section ...IOTA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 78.5W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Providencia * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Andres A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 78.5 West. Iota is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so until landfall occurs. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast. On the forecast track, the core of Iota will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, pass near or just north of Providencia island on Monday, and approach the coasts of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras within the hurricane warning area late Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next 36 hours, and Iota is forecast to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches Central America. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Friday morning: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). Northern Colombia: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum totals near 12 inches (300 mm). WIND: Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning in Nicaragua and Honduras area beginning late Monday with tropical storm conditions beginning Monday morning. Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of Providencia by late tonight with tropical storm conditions expected beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres this evening with hurricane conditions possible there early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in Honduras by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras tonight and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Iota Graphics
2020-11-15 15:38:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 14:38:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 15:31:38 GMT
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Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-11-15 15:36:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 151436 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 Iota continues to rapidly strengthen. The hurricane has an impressive appearance in visible satellite imagery with a very symmetric Central Dense Overcast and excellent banding features in all quadrants. The outflow has become well established and recent microwave satellite imagery has shown a 37-GHz eye feature and a mid-level eye that was not quite closed. A TAFB Dvorak classification of T4.5 was the basis for the 75-kt 1200 UTC analyzed intensity, and with the continued improvement in structure the advisory wind speed is set at 80 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to the storm. Iota is located within an extremely conducive environment for strengthening. The upper-level wind pattern is forecast to remain quite favorable while the storm crosses sea surface temperatures of 28.5-29 degrees C. As a result, continued rapid strengthening is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Iota is forecast to become a potentially catastrophic category 4 hurricane before it reaches the coast of northeastern Nicaragua or eastern Honduras. A difficult-to-predict eyewall replacement cycle could cause the intensity to begin to level off when Iota nears the coast. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for continued rapid strengthening and is in good agreement with the SHIPS and HFIP corrected consensus models. After landfall, rapid weakening should occur as Iota moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America. The hurricane has begun moving faster toward the west-northwest, with a long-term motion estimate of 285/8 kt. The steering currents ahead of Iota are well established as a strong mid-level ridge is located over the western Atlantic and Florida. This should keep Iota on a westward to west-northwestward heading through landfall. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward track is anticipated. The global models are in good agreement on this scenario and the updated NHC track forecast is only adjusted a little north of the previous track to be closer to the latest multi-model consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to continue to rapidly intensify and be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America on Monday. Potentially catastrophic winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts are possible on Providencia tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible by this evening on San Andres. 3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 13.3N 78.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 13.8N 79.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 14.2N 81.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 14.4N 82.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 14.5N 84.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/0000Z 14.4N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/1200Z 14.3N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/1200Z 13.8N 89.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-11-15 15:36:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 151436 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS ...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 5(16) X(16) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 6(20) X(20) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GUANAJA 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 14(24) 11(35) 3(38) X(38) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 3 15(18) 57(75) 11(86) 2(88) X(88) X(88) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X 3( 3) 37(40) 20(60) 4(64) X(64) X(64) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) 22(22) 14(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) BLUEFIELDS 34 3 2( 5) 3( 8) 6(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN ANDRES 34 5 27(32) 8(40) 2(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) SAN ANDRES 50 3 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) SAN ANDRES 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LIMON 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) COLON 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGSTON 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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